Monday, April 5, 2010

The Woes in the US Economy

Here'a personal statement from a Robert X. Cringley post. The facts may be skewed a bit too much, but the gist is generally right:
In 1981 IBM introduced the PC. By 1984, five years after my graduation, the engineering profession was turned on its ear. Accountants doing what-if analysis found the company could be more profitable if all R&D was stopped. By 1989, 10 years after my graduation my entire profession (Industrial Engineering) was wiped out. Over 90 percent of the jobs were gone. Around then I moved to IT.

In the 1990’s there was a mass exodus of U.S. manufacturing jobs. When the factories were moved offshore, so was the need for engineers. I’d be willing to bet over two-thirds of the engineering positions in the USA have been eliminated in the past 30 years.

Of all my college friends, only one is still working as an Engineer. He works for NASA.

With a lot fewer jobs in engineering, college students weren’t stupid — then went to IT and other fields. IT provided a lot of opportunity until the early 2000’s when the flood of H1-B’s hit. U.S. workers were run out by people willing to take less pay and no benefits. Students know R&D and manufacturing jobs have been moved off shore. They think long and hard about going into engineering. They know their jobs are as vulnerable as IT jobs.

With a job situation like this — is it any surprise our most gifted students are not studying math, science, or engineering?
I remember how television manufacturing collapsed under the Nixon administration. I've read that Nixon gave televisions to Japan for some political support on some issue. I don't have the facts, but I do believe that many short-sighted decisions led to the collapse of that industry. Television manufacturing is just one of a long series of horrible mistakes on industrial policy by many US administrations. It is tragic.

Since the late 1990s it looked like "financial engineering" would be the engine of the US economy, but that blew up in 2008. There is nothing out there right now that looks like a savour for the economy. The idea that "green jobs" will save the economy strikes me as foolish. I think the US needs an industrial policy. Buy, hey, what do I know?

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