I find it hard to see a pattern, but according to some "experts" there will be no arctic sea ice left this year. Here is an article from the UK's Independent:
Exclusive: Scientists warn that there may be no ice at North Pole this summerSo... it is just 3 or 4 months away from confirming or disconfirming this "experts" judgment. Personally, I think the following graph already gives us the answer. Sure the summers of 2007 and 2008 had drastic ice melting, but the "anomaly" (the deviation of ice cover from the average) is no trending back to average, so it is very unlikely that this year will see even as much ice melt as 2007 or 2008:
Polar scientists reveal dramatic new evidence of climate change
By Steve Connor, Science Editor
It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.
The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, making it possible to reach the Pole sailing in a boat through open water, would be one of the most dramatic – and worrying – examples of the impact of global warming on the planet. Scientists say the ice at 90 degrees north may well have melted away by the summer.
"From the viewpoint of science, the North Pole is just another point on the globe, but symbolically it is hugely important. There is supposed to be ice at the North Pole, not open water," said Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.