Living in the Fast Lane

I puzzle from time to time about why there was so much change in the past and so little now. But then I snap out of it. Here are some antidotes:

I pick up Ray Kurzweil's book The Singularity is Near and read his discussion about how the rate of discovery is accelerating and his vision of what lies ahead.

I read an article which points to new technology and discusses how fast things are changing. Here is a bit from an article on the science of genomes by Carl Zimmer:

Fifteen years ago, things were different. In 1995, scientists published the first complete genome of a free-living organisms ever–that of a nasty germ called Haemophilus influenzae. Bear in mind, this was in the dark ages of the twentieth century, when a scientist might spend a decade trying to decipher the sequence of a single gene.

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Then came more microbes. Then, ten years ago this coming June, came a rough draft of the human genome. Then finished drafts of other animals: chickens, mice, flies, worms. Flowers, truffles, and malaria-causing parasites. They came faster and faster, cheaper and cheaper. The acceleration now means that the simple accomplishment of sequencing a genome is no longer news.

On Wednesday I caught a talk at Yale by Jonathan Rothberg, a scientist who invented “next-generation sequencing” in 2005. By sequencing vast numbers of DNA fragments at once, the new technology made it possible to get a genome’s sequence far faster than earlier methods. Rothberg’s company, 454, got bought up by Roche, leaving him without a lot to do. So he came up with a new machine: a genome sequencer about the size of a desktop printer that can knock out complete genomes with high accuracy in a matter of hours. Rothberg has been unveiling details of the machine over the past few weeks. To convince his audience that the machine actually works, he flashed another mandala wheel–the 4.7 million base pairs of E. coli.

I recalled when the first E. coli genome was published in 1997. It was the result of years of work by 17 co-authors, an event celebrated in newspapers. Now Rothberg just threw up a quick slide of the germ’s genome just to show what he could do in a matter of hours. And I have to say that the sight of yet another circular map of a genome, on its own, no longer gave me a thrill. It’s a bit like someone waving you over to a telescope and saying, “Look! I found a star!”

I remember the pre-history... back in the early 1970s I remember an impromptu seminar that the philosophers and grad students held when the issue of recombinant DNA came up and there was a question about banning it as "dangerous science". The discussion was on what was the ethical duty of scientists. Luckily the fanatics on either side ("stop it!" and "leave the scientists alone to do whatever they please") lost and common sense prevailed. The scientists halted research and quickly drew up guidelines for carrying out the research safely (using denatured E. Coli) so that even if the bugs escaped the outside world would be safe. They also defined levels of confinement based on risk. It was all very sensible. But that was the dark ages when nothing had really been decoded. Now a table top box can decode a whole genome in a couple of hours! Wow!

This is why some futurists are worried about biological terrorism. It is getting easier for a single person or small fanatical group to do something terrible. The world is a dangerous place. The answer isn't to stick your head in the ground. But you can't panic. Governments and concerned citizens need to look at the future and act like the recombinant DNA scientists: define rules & guidelines & monitor risk & have countermeasures ready in case some idiot does imperil the world.