Thursday, September 29, 2011

David Orrell on the Art & Science of Forecasting

I love to read about "expert opinion" and "forecasting". One of my favourite reads is Dan Gardner's "Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway". Here is the author's website for the book. And here is my comment on the book.

David Orrell has written a number of books on economics and in particular the failure of economic models to match reality. I especially enjoy his book Economyths. Here is the author's website and the (author's post on his book.

Here is a presentation by David Orrell for the International Institute of Forecasters entitled "Where's the Puck? 2500 Years of Forecasting". It is a nice survey of the history and failings of forecasting:

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