Saturday, August 28, 2010

Accuracy in Prognostication

Paul Krugman pats himself on the back for his foretelling in February 2009 the stagnation and ugly politics to come caused by Obama's reticence to lead:
Failure To Rise

I’m finding it hard to read about politics these days. I still don’t think people in the administration understand the magnitude of the catastrophe their excessive caution has created. I keep waiting for Obama to do something, something, to shake things up; but it never seems to happen.

Here’s what I wrote in February 2009. It’s pretty rich that now the usual suspects are accusing me of having shared the administration’s optimism. But that’s a trivial point; the important thing is that all signs are that the next few years will be a combination of economic stagnation and political witch-hunt.

This is going to be almost inconceivably ugly.
This is a great, great tragedy. And especially bitter because some bright people, like Krugman, knew what was coming and tried very had to warn the powers-that-be of the disaster lying ahead.

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