Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Putting Tornadoes into Perspective

From a summary of data by Anthony Watts on his blog Watts Up With That?. These numbers help show that these are not "off the chart" events. They are part of a long history of devastating storms:

Deadliest Tornado Years in US History

(Official NOAA-NWS Record: 1950 – present; Research by Grazulis: 1875-1949)

Year Fatalities
1925 794
1936 552
1917 551
1927 540
1896 537
1953 519
1920 499
1908 477
2011 481 (365 + 116 estimated Joplin fatalities as of May 23)
1909 404
1932 394
1942 384
1924 376
1974 366

Deadliest Single Tornadoes in NOAA-NWS Official Record

(1950 – present)

TornadoFatalitiesDate
Flint, Michigan116June 8, 1953
Joplin, Missouri116 (est.)May 22, 2011
Waco, Texas114May 11, 1953
Worcester, Massachusetts90June 9, 1953
Udall, Kansas80May 25, 1955
Hackleburg, Alabama78April 27, 2011
Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, Alabama61April 27, 2011
“Candlestick Park,”
Mississippi & Alabama
58March 3, 1966
Cary, Mississippi58February 21, 1971
Judsonia, Arkansas50February 21, 1952

The main reason why storms have bigger tolls today than 100 years ago is that the population in the US is 3 times that of 100 years ago. It isn't "global warming". It is more people in the path of a storm.

Update 2011may24: Here is a good post by Roy Spencer that corrects some misperceptions about the trend in tornadoes. The key bit:
The bottom panel of following graphic shows what most meteorologists already know: there has been a downward trend in strong (F3) to violent (F5) tornadoes in the U.S. since statistics began in the 1950s. As seen in the top panel, this has also been a period of general warming. For those statistics buffs, the correlation coefficient is -0.31. Obviously, the conclusion should be that warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more. (Or, maybe a lack of tornadoes causes global warming!)
Go read the post to see the data graphed that shows this trend.

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