| Tornado | Fatalities | Date |
| Flint, Michigan | 116 | June 8, 1953 | Joplin, Missouri | 116 (est.) | May 22, 2011 | Waco, Texas | 114 | May 11, 1953 | Worcester, Massachusetts | 90 | June 9, 1953 | Udall, Kansas | 80 | May 25, 1955 | Hackleburg, Alabama | 78 | April 27, 2011 | Tuscaloosa-Birmingham, Alabama | 61 | April 27, 2011 | “Candlestick Park,” Mississippi & Alabama | 58 | March 3, 1966 | Cary, Mississippi | 58 | February 21, 1971 | Judsonia, Arkansas | 50 | February 21, 1952 |
The bottom panel of following graphic shows what most meteorologists already know: there has been a downward trend in strong (F3) to violent (F5) tornadoes in the U.S. since statistics began in the 1950s. As seen in the top panel, this has also been a period of general warming. For those statistics buffs, the correlation coefficient is -0.31. Obviously, the conclusion should be that warming causes fewer strong tornadoes, not more. (Or, maybe a lack of tornadoes causes global warming!)Go read the post to see the data graphed that shows this trend.
I see the inevitable blame-humanity game has been reinvigorated by the recent tornado swarm. I have not read other meteorologists’ treatment of this issue, so what follows can be considered an independent opinion on the matter.Despite the science, media reports are busy affirming that "global warming" has caused the increased number of tornadoes in the US southern states. This just proves that you shouldn't learn your "science" from the media. And you shouldn't "learn" anything from a public interest group since they are partisans with a viewpoint they are trying to sell. You need to be skeptical and look to facts.
If there is one weather phenomenon global warming theory does NOT predict more of, it would be severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Tornadic thunderstorms do not require tropical-type warmth. In fact, tornadoes are almost unheard of in the tropics, despite frequent thunderstorm activity.
Instead, tornadoes require strong wind shear (wind speed and direction changing rapidly with height in the lower atmosphere), the kind which develops when cold and warm air masses “collide”. Of course, other elements must be present, such as an unstable airmass and sufficient low-level humidity, but wind shear is the key. Strong warm advection (warm air riding up and over the cooler air mass, which is also what causes the strong wind shear) in advance of a low pressure area riding along the boundary between the two air masses is where these storms form.
But contrasting air mass temperatures is the key. Active tornado seasons in the U.S. are almost always due to unusually COOL air persisting over the Midwest and Ohio Valley longer than it normally does as we transition into spring.
For example, the poster child for active tornado seasons was the Superoutbreak of 1974, which was during globally cool conditions. This year, we are seeing much cooler than normal conditions through the corn belt, even delaying the planting schedule. Cool La Nina years seem to favor more tornadoes, and we are now coming out of a persistent La Nina. The global-average temperature has plummeted by about 1 deg. F in just one year.
An unusually warm Gulf of Mexico of 1 or 2 degrees right now cannot explain the increase in contrast between warm and cold air masses which is key for tornado formation because that slight warmth cannot compete with the 10 to 20 degree below-normal air in the Midwest and Ohio Valley which has not wanted to give way to spring yet.
The “extra moisture” from the Gulf is not that important, because it’s almost always available this time of year…it’s the wind shear that caused this outbreak.
More tornadoes due to “global warming”, if such a thing happened, would be more tornadoes in Canada, where they don’t usually occur. NOT in Alabama.
It is well known that strong to violent tornado activity in the U.S. has decreased markedly since statistics began in the 1950s, which has also been a period of average warming. So, if anything, global warming causes FEWER tornado outbreaks…not more. In other words, more violent tornadoes would, if anything, be a sign of “global cooling”, not “global warming”.
Anyone who claims more tornadoes are caused by global warming is either misinformed, pandering, or delusional.
Global Tropical Cyclone ACE does not show an upward trend in communion with global temperatures.Instead of the simple relationship of "global temperatures rise and cause more hurricanes" the real relationship is very complex and dependent on large cycles in systems such as ENSO (El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation in the Pacific). But complex relationships don't "sell" simple messages like "CO2 causes global warming" or "global warming causes hurricanes" or "global warming causes sea level rise" of "human activity harms Mother Nature and she will strike back at us".
In the five years since 2006, Northern Hemisphere and overall global tropical cyclone (TC) accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) has decreased dramatically to the lowest levels in at least 30-years. Here we examine the strikingly large global interannual variability of TC ACE during the past 40-years and shed light on the large-scale climate mechanisms responsible for the recent historical downturn in TC activity. Much of the variability in global TC ACE is explained by the concomitant changes or evolution in the character of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In the context of the Pacific climate variability and its effect on global TC activity, our results suggest that the ongoing period of heightened North Atlantic hurricane activity is related to decreases in storm activity elsewhere.
Food prices worldwide were up by a whopping 25% in 2010, according to the UN's Food and Agriculture Organisation, and February marked the eighth consecutive month of rising global food prices. Within the past two months, food riots helped to trigger the ousting of ruling regimes in Tunisia and Egypt. (It is noteworthy that food prices increased 17% last year in Egypt, and the price of wheat, a critical staple there, soared by more than 50%.) For poor countries that are net importers of food, even small increases in food prices can be catastrophic, and recent bumps have been anything but small.And this:
There are several causes of rising prices. First, large-scale disasters have precipitated localised crop failures, some of which have had broad ripple effects – for example, Russia's ban on grain exports through at least the end of this calendar year resulted from fires and drought. Second, deadly strains of an evolving wheat pathogen (a rust) named Ug99 are increasingly threatening yields in the major wheat-growing areas of southern and eastern Africa, the central Asian Republics, the Caucasus, the Indian subcontinent, South America, Australia and North America. Third, rising incomes in emerging markets like China and India have increased the ability of an expanding middle class to shift from a grain-based diet to one that contains more meat.
And fourth, against this backdrop of lessened supply and heightened demand, private investment in R&D on innovative practices and technologies has been discouraged by arbitrary and unscientific national and international regulatory barriers – against, in particular, new varieties of plants produced with modern genetic engineering (aka recombinant DNA technology or genetic modification, or GM). Genetic engineering offers plant breeders the tools to make crops do spectacular new things. In more than two dozen countries, farmers are using genetically engineered crop varieties to produce higher yields, with lower inputs and reduced impact on the environment.
In fact, the United States and Europe are diverting vast and increasing amounts of land and agricultural production into making ethanol. The United States is approaching the diversion of 40% of the corn harvest for fuel and the EU has a goal of 10% biofuel use by 2020. The implications are worrisome. On 9 February, the US department of agriculture reported that the ethanol industry's projected orders for 2011 rose 8.4%, to 13.01bn bushels, leaving the United States with about 675m bushels of corn left at the end of the year. That is the lowest surplus level since 1996.So, what do we know? Bad weather and a virulent new plant pathogen. The weather will change. And science can help develop resistent strains to deal with the new pathogen.
Arlington, WY – avg annual wind speed of 31mph, gusts above 110mph, seems like a great place for a wind turbine ….right?Well, maybe not, especially if you have to factor in replacement costs for toppled wind turbines.
RECORD EVENT REPORTThat's a 111 year old record that toppled.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
523 PM MST TUE FEB 01 2011
...RECORD DAILY LOW HIGH SET AT CHEYENNE WYOMING...
A RECORD DAILY LOW HIGH WAS SET TODAY AT CHEYENNE WYOMING. THE OLD
RECORD WAS MINUS 5 SET IN 1899. THE NEW RECORD LOW HIGH IS MINUS 9.
Combine cold temperatures that make steel brittle along with gusty winds, and you have a Titanic recipe for disaster. For those that will argue that I’m being unfair to the promise of wind power, I welcome you to provide photos of any power plant in the USA that has been collapsed due to weather. Downed power poles sure, but power sources?
"We Spent Billions on Wind Power... and All I Got Was a Rolling Blackout"
The Electric Reliability Council of Texas said 7,000 megawatts of generating capacity tripped ["tripped" means failed]Tuesday night, leaving the state without enough juice. That’s enough capacity to power about 1.4 million homes. By rotating outages, ERCOT said it prevented total blackouts.“We have the double whammy of extremely high demand, given the lowest temperatures in 15 years, combined with generation that’s been compromised and is producing less than expected or needed,” said Oncor spokeswoman Catherine Cuellar. Oncor operates power lines in North Texas and facilitated the blackouts for ERCOT.The article didn't give a clue as to what generating capability failed, but I can make a pretty good guess: Wind energy.
--- above from the "Dallas Morning News"
When the wind is light, the turbine blades do not turn. And, the coldest nights usually occur with snow cover and light winds. The 9pm weather map for the region is below. The red number at upper right is the current temperature and they are well below zero deep into New Mexico and parts of Kansas and Colorado, so regional power use is high. Springfield, CO was already -15°F. Temperatures are in the single digits and teens over most Texas with very light winds in the areas where the turbines are located.
Amazing footage of East Creek near Chalk Drive / Chalk Lane rising and washing away lots of cars during Flash Flood in Toowoomba on Monday 10 January 2011. This is some of the best footage I have seen of the Flood and was taken from the second floor of our office which backs onto Chalk Lane.A question...
It shows just how fast the creek turned into a torrent and quickly flooded Chalk Drive and Chalk Lane.
I also got some video of where the creek crosses Neil Street and some video of the aftermath and the huge amount of cars damaged and piled on top of one another in the Chalk Drive car park.
*****
With the incredible exposure that my video is receiving all over the internet and media worldwide I would like to encourage you to donate to the relief appeals.
You can donate to the Queensland Government Appeal at: http://www.qld.gov.au/floods/donate.html
Or the Churches of Christ Care Queensland Flood Appeal here:
http://care.cofcqld.com.au/site/docs/...
Please pray for us. There are many people who are suffering through this.
That sure puts the recent Russian heatwave into a distant second place!
The world record for the longest sequence of days above 100°Fahrenheit (or 37.8° on the Celsius scale) is held by Marble Bar in the inland Pilbara district of Western Australia. The temperature, measured under standard exposure conditions, reached or exceeded the century mark every day from 31 October 1923 to 7 April 1924, a total of 160 days.
La Niña causes mostly the opposite effects of El Niño. La Niña causes above average precipitation across the North Midwest, the Northern Rockies, Northern California, and in the Pacific Northwest's southern and eastern regions. Meanwhile there is below average precipitation in the southwestern and southeastern states.Here is what Wikipedia says about the "jet stream" during El Niño and La Niña and its effect on the weather:
La Niñas occurred in 1904, 1908, 1910, 1916, 1924, 1928, 1938, 1950, 1955, 1964, 1970, 1973, 1975, 1988, 1995.
Atlantic tropical cyclone activity is generally enhanced during La Niña.
In Canada, La Niña will generally cause a cooler, snowier winter, such as the near record-breaking amounts of snow recorded in the La Niña winter of 2007/2008 in Eastern Canada.
The changing of the normal location of upper-level jet streams can be anticipated during phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which leads to consequences precipitation-wise and temperature-wise across North America, affects tropical cyclone development across the eastern Pacific and Atlantic basins. Combined with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, ENSO can also impact cold season rainfall in Europe. Changes in ENSO also change the location of the jet stream over South America, which partially affects precipitation distribution over the continent.You can read the weekly Enso Cycle report from NOAA. Here's the summary from the latest report:
...
Across North America during La Niña, increased precipitation is diverted into the Pacific Northwest due to a more northerly storm track and jet stream. The storm track shifts far enough northward to bring wetter than normal conditions (in the form of increased snowfall) to the Midwestern states, as well as hot and dry summers. Snowfall is above normal across the Pacific Northwest and western Great Lakes. Across the North Atlantic, the jet stream is stronger than normal, which directs stronger systems with increased precipitation towards Europe.
•La Niña conditions are developing across the equatorial Pacific.I would say that you can safely ignore the doom-and-gloom crowd who are telling you that "global warming" is upon us and we have not hope, i.e. that runaway warming will turn us into crisp blackened toast. In the real world, we are caught in a changing weather cycle. The heat wave is explainable as an effect of the ENSO cycle.
•Negative sea surface temperature anomalies continue to strengthen across much of the Pacific Ocean.
•The onset of La Niña conditions is likely during July-August 2010.
