Friday, April 11, 2008

Real Interest Rates?

The current IMF World Economic Outlook document shows how the major economies are once again setting real interest rates into "negative" territory in a desperate attempt to stimulate the economy. This is scary:



At the same time, the GDP estimates continue to shrink by frightening amounts:

For the United States, the January 2008 forecast called for:
2008 at 1.5% and 2009 at 1.8%

now, three months later, the April 2008 forecast calls for:
2008 at 0.5% and 2009 at 0.6%

For Canada, the January 2008 forecast called for:
2008 at 1.8% and 2009 at 2.4%

now, three months later, the April 2008 forecast calls for:
2008 at 1.3% and 2009 at 1.9%

The shrinkage for Canada is not as dramatic as the US, but to have that kind of shrinkage in the growth estimates in just three months is very scary.

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