Sunday, April 6, 2008

Breathless Report of New Model Results

Why am I cynical of the news release of research by Govindasamy Bala at Lawrence Livermore Labs?

Using state-of-the-art supercomputers, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory climate scientists have performed a 400-year high-resolution global ocean-atmosphere simulation with results that are more similar to actual observations of surface winds and sea surface temperatures.

The simulation was performed on the LLNL supercomputer Thunder, using about 500 processors or slightly more than 10 percent of Thunder’s capacity. The 400-year-long simulation, performed over a period of three months, was part of an LLNL Grand Challenge Computing project. This simulation, at about 100-kilometer resolution for the atmosphere, is the highest resolution multi-century CCSM simulation to date.

I can't find the actual research report. All I see is the press release. It has no quantitative data. That results are "similar" to actual observations and the simulation uses a 100-kilometer resolution doesn't, by itself, get me shouting "eureka!". Maybe this research shows that the model is good. Maybe not. But what is the point of this press release? Three months run time on a really, really big processing cluster. Wow! But what does it really mean? I want quantitative assessments of how accurately the model simulates actual data.

No comments: