Sunday, May 23, 2010

God's Little Jokes

Anybody who believes there is "intelligence" behind the universe must also believe that this "intelligence" just loves insider jokes and little pranks at the expense of some innocent victim.

In the midst of a new wave of investor panic and selloffs in stock markets around the world, here is some solid good news about the economy that is completely overlooked:

The financial panic of 2008 that froze all credit markets is now starting to thaw. This is the first "green shoot" that looks real to me. But the joke is that it comes in the midst of a 12% selloff in stock markets around the world.

The graph shows that after a full year and a half of businesses having to tighten their belt because they can't get new credit, there is finally a tiny, tiny bit of growth in credit. That will allow firms to expand and new businesses to find financing. It is a tiny first step back to "normalcy".

I'm eternally optimistic, so I think this heralds a recovery that has "legs". But that is purely a personal view, and one not informed by vast academic background in the esoterica of business cycles and the dynamics of recovery.

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