Friday, June 26, 2009

Krugman on Half Measures

In his latest op-ed at the NY Times, Paul Krugman takes Obama to task for "negotiating with himself" and ending up with half measures that lead to policy failure.

The main object of his attack in Obama's watering down health care. But the following bit, on the stimulus package, is much clearer and easier to understand. So I'm quoting it here:
At the beginning of this year, you may remember, Mr. Obama made an eloquent case for a strong economic stimulus — then delivered a proposal falling well short of what independent analysts (and, I suspect, his own economists) considered necessary. The goal, presumably, was to attract bipartisan support. But in the event, Mr. Obama was able to pick up only three Senate Republicans by making a plan that was already too weak even weaker.

At the time, some of us warned about what might happen: if unemployment surpassed the administration’s optimistic projections, Republicans wouldn’t accept the need for more stimulus. Instead, they’d declare the whole economic policy a failure. And that’s exactly how it’s playing out. With the unemployment rate now almost certain to pass 10 percent, there’s an overwhelming economic case for more stimulus. But as a political matter it’s going to be harder, not easier, to get that extra stimulus now than it would have been to get the plan right in the first place.

The point is that if you’re making big policy changes, the final form of the policy has to be good enough to do the job. You might think that half a loaf is always better than none — but it isn’t if the failure of half-measures ends up discrediting your whole policy approach.
Go read the whole article to understand Krugman's point and to understand his worries about Obama's handling of health care reform.

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