Technological Advance

I worked with computers and Moore's Law was the elephant in the room. We would take on projects knowing that they were cutting edge and likely to fail, but during the 2 or 3 years of development we would be saved by newer faster equipment which would mean that our software could in fact meet the tough technical standards required by the project's goals.

But genomics is making Moore's law look like a lazy Sunday stroll compared to the breakneck 100 metre rush being put on by advances in gene sequencing:

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I got the above from a fascinating article in Forbes magazine about an Oregon family devastated by a genetic disease that has now been found and decoded by new technologies:

This one family, in Ogden, Utah, has watched as five children in two generations have died from a mysterious disease that science could not explain.. Thanks to huge leaps being made in DNA sequencing and in computer programs to decipher genetic code, researchers were able to find the gene for this disease in just sixteen months. Potentially, this could offer Lundell and her sisters the opportunity to have children via in vitro fertilization, selecting embryos that don’t have the gene.

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Three new technologies allowed Lyon to find the gene that was causing the boys to die. The cost of sequencing a human genome has been dropping precipitously, from $100 million in 2001 to $10,000 last year, according to Macquarie Securities, an investment advisor. Other new technologies allowed Lyon to focus on just 1% of human genetic material that was likely to provide him answers. And a brand new kind of software allowed him to use information about the family and their genetic material to find the defective gene.

I don't know how the increasing technology advances in biology will shape the future. Just like nobody could really foresee all the applications of computers as they became faster and more diverse. But I have high hopes that 50 years from now people will be living vastly richer and more interesting lives because of this new technology.

There is a lot to get despondent about and become pessimistic on the future. Gloom and doom are popular. Religious zealots want to close off our minds to the future. But human ingenuity and the ability to dream about a better future make me optimistic. Sure some of the new stuff will be abused in the hands of cruel and selfish people. But enough will find its way into the hands of the great majority that overall the future will be better. I look at 10,000 years of civilization where ideas have been cumulative and I see a definite trend despite dark ages and monstrous cruelty. I am optimistic. Since the advent of science just 400 years ago, human society has made giant strides.