Tyler Cowen, Futurist

Here's an interesting posting that demonstrates Tyler Cowen's credentials as a "futurist". In October 2008, he makes his best guess at how Obama would do as president. This summary nails it for me:

But the best prediction is that he will be ineffective in tackling most of America’s biggest problems.

My best estimate given the first six months in office is that this pretty well nails it.

Here's the full posting. I've bolded bits that I think get it right:

Guessing the “true economic views” of Barack Obama has grown into a small industry. Some people are convinced that he is a radical left-winger, while others claim he absorbed free market economics during his time as a law professor at the University of Chicago. Obama’s voting record in the Senate is left-wing, but since he’s been planning on pursuing the Presidency for years, maybe those votes were for public consumption.

My view of Obama’s economics is straightforward one and it is consistent with his public pronouncements. I view Barack Obama as an economic pragmatist who is willing to borrow good ideas from many different sources. He stands further to the left than do most Americans (myself included) but he has lined up the very best centrist economic talent to advise him.

What’s the reason for thinking that Obama is such a pragmatist? If you read’s Obama first memoir (Dreams from My Father: A Memoir of Race and Inheritance), which he wrote before he was famous, issues of identity dominate He is acutely aware of being a mixed-race person in a community of largely white American leaders. Most of all, I think Obama wants to do a good job as President and he wants to be seen as having done a good job. That would pave the way for improved race relations and, although Obama would not use these words, it would bring higher status to African-Americans. When it comes to his subconscious, I see Obama as more attached to the notion of excelling than to any particular view of economic policy. Keep in mind that Obama was raised by a white mother (the father was absent) and he “decided to be black,” and decided to marry a black woman and attend a black church, only later in his life. Oddly, his hopes for improved race relations are the hopes that would be held by a utopian white liberal rather than the vision held by most African-Americans. That is one reason why African-Americans were initially so slow to support him and why so many educated white elites feel so at home with him.

Obama is also famously detached and it seems he never loses his cool. He does not fixate on economic ideology but instead he is focused on creating his own personal success. That implies a very strong ego but also it again leads to an economic and also a foreign policy pragmatism.

If Obama is elected, I expect the major economic storyline to be Obama pushing policies in the national interest (as he perceives it) and Congress pushing back with earmarked expenditures and privileges for special interest groups. It won’t be about Democrat vs. Republican.

There is plenty of talk about Obama being half-black but perhaps the more important fact is that Obama is from Hawaii. Many Hawaiians barely think of themselves as North Americans and they live thousands of miles from the continent. The Hawaiian background is part of where Obama’s cosmopolitanism – which is strong and sincere – comes from.

My description may sound like a very favorable portrait of Obama on economics but he will likely encounter serious problems if he wins the election. The important American Presidents are those like Reagan who “know a few big things” and push them unceasingly, without much regard for the pragmatic or even the reasonable. Obama is not used to connecting with mainstream America and if he wins it is because the country is fed up with Republicans, not because the voters have absolute confidence in him. Congress will test him. The chance that he makes big mistakes will be small, and that’s all for the better. But the best prediction is that he will be ineffective in tackling most of America’s biggest problems.

I'm impressed. This is a pretty good assessment of Obama.