The Sirens of the Right

Sitting in Canada it is amusing to hear the same right wing voices periodically cry out that the US is in a hopeless mess because of entitlements. They aren't. But truth has never been a stumbling block to the wailing and gnashing of teeth popular on the right about social programs.

Here's a bit from Robert Reich's blog about the latest revival of this perenial "worry":

What are we to make of yesterday's report from the trustees of the Social Security and Medicare trust funds that Social Security will run out of assets in 2037, four years sooner than previously forecast, and Medicare’s hospital fund will be exhausted by 2017, two years earlier than predicted a year ago?

Reports of these two funds' demise are not new. Fifteen years ago, when I was a trustee of the Social Security and the Medicare trust funds (which meant, essentially, that I and a few others met periodically with the official actuary of the funds, received his report, asked a few questions, and signed some papers) both funds were supposedly in trouble. But as I learned, the timing and magnitude of the trouble depended a great deal on what assumptions the actuary used in his models. As I recall, he then assumed that the economy would grow by about 2.6 percent a year over the next seventy-five years. But go back into American history all the way to the Civil War -- including the Great Depression and the severe depressions of the late 19th century -- and the economy's average annual growth is closer to 3 percent. Use a 3 percent assumption and Social Security is flush for the next seventy-five years.

Yes, I know, the post-war Baby Boom is moving through the population like a pig through a python. The number of retirees eligible for benefits will almost double to 79.5 million in 2045 from 40.5 million this year. But we knew that the Boomers were coming then, too. What we didn't know then was the surge in immigration. Yet immigrants are mostly young. Rather than being a drain on Social Security when the Boomers need it, most immigrants will be contributing to the system during these years, which should take more of the pressure off.

The truth is that US Social Security is sound. The Medicare spending is out of control, but you can thank Bush 43 for that. His Pharmacare added to the burden and its insistance that drug purchases not be competitive was a wet dream come true for the pharmaceutical industry.

It is funny to watch the American right use the "big lie" technique of the Nazis.