The Science of Global Warming

Here is a posting by a researcher, the Israeli Nir J. Shaviv, contending with the global warming doomsayers. His argument is not with the existence of greenhouse gases or the role they play in warming the earth. Instead, his argument is about the science of global warming and the role that solar irradiance (heat from the sun) and cosmic rays (influenced by solar magnetism) have:

So what does it mean?

First, it means that the IPCC cannot ignore anymore the fact that the sun has a large climatic effect on climate. Of course, there was plenty of evidence before, so I don't expect this result [his paper just accepted for publication in the Journal of Geophysical Research] to make any difference!

Second, given the consistency between the energy going into the oceans and the estimated forcing by the solar cycle synchronized cloud cover variations, it is unlikely that the solar forcing is not associated with the cloud cover variation.

Take a look at the above link to get an idea of how scientists can differ over the mechanism of global warming and the significance of greenhouse gases.

From the middle of this blog entry you get Shaviv's position on the debate:

Since global warming alarmists want a large sensitivity [to solar irradiance variation], they adamantly fight any evidence which shows that there might be an amplification mechanism. Clearly, a larger climate sensitivity would imply that the same CO2 increase over the 21st century would cause a larger temperature increase, that is, allow for a more frightening scenario, more need for climate research and climate action, and more need for research money for them. (I am being overly cynical here, but it some cases it is not far from the truth). Others don't even need research money, don't really care about the science (and certainly don't understand it), but make money from riding the wave anyway (e.g., a former vice president, without naming names).

By the way, you can get a feeling for the personality of Shaviv by reading this bit from another posting on his blog in his intro to the physics of "Lightning Strikes Without A Storm":

A few months ago, I attended a space-day event at the Presidents' residence... Nope, not the American one, the Israeli one. In Israel, the president is like the queen in the U.K., only less so.

Anyway, the event was rather interesting because of several aspects.

First, it was my first time there. I almost visited the place as a soldier. I had strong recommendations for a good citation (at least so I was told), but a hair-cut (the lack of one actually) and missing rank insignia, ended with a minor court martial and no chance of visiting the presidence.