Japanese Bureaucracy

They are a case study in how to "manage the Truth" and slow down the process of discovery of the truth. Their role, apparently, is to put a shine on everything and come up with Pollyanna statements in the face of the grim truth and tragedy.

It is hard to imagine how you govern a country where your underlings shield you from the rough edges of the truth by always giving you the optimistic interpretation. For example, here is how they handle the death count from the tsunami. From a Wall Street Journal article:

The number of dead and missing after Japan's twin earthquake and tsunami stood late Wednesday, officially, at 12,920.

In reality, Japanese widely agree, the toll of last week's disaster is likely much higher. In Miyagi, a coastal prefecture that bore some of the tsunami's worst destruction, officials estimate the toll there alone will be in the tens of thousands.

Accounting for the gap between the official and true count are places like Otsuchi, until March 11 a town of about 15,000 people on Japan's northeastern coast.

Japan won't declare someone missing unless they have been reported missing. In Otsuchi, where Friday's tsunami is believed to have swept away entire neighborhoods and families, no one is left in many cases to report names. About 5,000 people were evacuated. Otuchi's dead number 221, officially. Seven are declared missing. That leaves more than 9,000 uncounted.

The effect is repeated in towns up and down the coast in the prefectures including Miyagi, Iwate and Fukushima. Survivors in Minamisanriku, a town in Miyagi washed nearly clean of its houses, believe about half of its 17,000 residents are gone. Press reports suggest roughly half of the 23,000 people of Rikuzentakata, in Iwate, are unaccounted for. In Onagawa, a seaside town where 106 residents are officially counted dead and 125 officially missing, residents believe about half of the pre-tsunami population of 10,000 will ultimately be counted as lost.

But the official toll rises one by one, as it did Wednesday in Onagawa.

I can just picture how the nuclear reactor disaster reached the Prime Minister:

Aide: Sir. Some foolish minor bureaucrats are hysterically reporting an unforeseen eventuality at on of our power sites.

PM:Why do you bother me with such silly minor issues when I'm facing the worst earthquake and tsunami in Japan's history?

Aide: I am deeply sorry to distract you from your awesome duties but some regrettably irritating minor officials think this problem with the nuclear plant needs your attention.

PM:Nuclear plant? Why didn't you say so? I thought you were talking of electrical distribution. I have heard of problems with nuclear power and I've been told they deliver over one-third of the nation's power so this might be serious.

Aide:I hardly think it is worthy of your supreme attention but these annoying pests keep talking about escaped radiation.

PM:What? You are not telling me about a failure to deliver electricity but some concern over nuclear radiation?

Aide:I know this is burdensome, but they indicate that noticeable amounts of radiation have leaked and that we should consider an evacuation.

PM:What? This isn't just a concern about radiation leakage, but an actual leak? Why wasn't I informed?

Aide:Sir. We humbly beg your pardon but we know you are busy and we didn't want to upset your serene disposition, but we've been told that radiation levels are so high that they've had to evacuate all staff and we can't bring helicopters in because the radiation levels are lethal over the plant?

PM:What? Lethal? When were you going to tell me of this most serious event? How am I to lead our mighty nation if you don't tell me what is happening?

Aide:I beg your pardon sir, but I understand that the levels of radiation are extremely high, perhaps more than Chernobyl since there are four reactors out of control and leaking not just the one in Chernobyl. And the experts tell me the winds could turn at any time and bring a radioactive cloud over Tokyo.

PM:How am I to rule effectively when critical facts are not brought to my attention? This is a most serious matter. We must decide what we tell the people of Tokyo.

Aide:Perhaps we tell them the truth?

PM:Fool! Are you insane? We must tell them something like "radiation has been detected at the damaged nuclear site, but levels are now falling, and our brave workers have things well in hand". We must avoid any panic in Tokyo.

Aide:But sir, what if lethal radiation levels begin to rain down upon Tokyo?

PM:In that case we must suffer the unendurable and tell them the necessary truth: "Yes, detectable radiation levels have been found in Tokyo, but the public should not worry. If the government finds that radiation poses a threat, the people will be informed immediately and all necessary steps will be taken." But under no circumstances do you dare tell them the dose levels are fatal!

That is the comedy of bureaucratic obfuscation that occurs at all levels in Japan. I simply don't know how such a society functions.

Mind you, the authorities in Western democracies pine for the kind of "message control" which has been achieved in Japan. Any whistle-blower in western society knows that government authorities will quickly clamp down on him. Rare indeed is a government that wants to tell its people "the Truth".

Meanwhile, here is how the news is being handled in the West. From the NY Times:

Scientists Project Path of Radiation Plume

By WILLIAM J. BROAD

A United Nations forecast of the possible movement of the radioactive plume coming from crippled Japanese reactors shows it churning across the Pacific, and touching the Aleutian Islands on Thursday before hitting Southern California late Friday.

Health and nuclear experts emphasize that radiation in the plume will be diluted as it travels and, at worst, would have extremely minor health consequences in the United States, even if hints of it are ultimately detectable. In a similar way, radiation from the Chernobyl disaster in 1986 spread around the globe and reached the West Coast of the United States in 10 days, its levels measurable but minuscule.

Now, it could be that western authorities are playing the same 'cover up" game as the Japanese authorities. But I actually believe the statement that the radiation levels will be negligibly higher. With radiation there is no "safe" level. It is always in the background. But the number of traceable health problems to this radiation leakage landing in western North America is statistically undetectable.

Go play with the interactive media that shows you the radioactive plume streaming across the Pacific!

Keep in mind: until the early 1960s, the US and Russia were happily blowing up nuclear bombs and sending plumes of radioactivity high into the stratosphere as they conducted hundreds of "tests" in their game of brinksmanship in the Cold War. It only dawned on scientists and leaders in the 1960s that they were poisoning their own children, so they moved the "tests" underground. I would guess that Fukushima might count as 4 bomb tests. But since this radiation will be leaked at gound level and not in the boiling plume of a mushroom cloud, it won't be anywhere near the significance of a "test" back in the 1950s.

Here is a discussion of what has been happening at the Fukushima reactors by Daniel Holz, a Feynman Fellow at Los Alamos National Laboratory, as well as a Senior Research Associate in the Department of Astronomy & Astrophysics at the University of Chicago, and works on general relativity, astrophysics, and cosmology, and has lately been playing with black holes, gravitational lensing, and gravitational waves. Amongst the details of what has happened and what can be done, he provides this worst case scenario:

The worst-case scenario for the Daiichi reactors plays out something like this: 1. the storage pool at #4 is indeed dry. Because it’s uncontained, the radiation levels in the area get very high. Everyone needs to evacuate the complex. 2. Without anyone manning the cooling systems, the cooling stops. Everything overheats. 3. There are various explosions, resulting in a breach to a containment vessel. 4. There is a subsequent steam explosion, and a plume of radioactive material is generated. 5. Wind carries the plume in the direction of Tokyo (world’s largest metropolis), a mere 140 miles (225 km) away. We can’t even contemplate trying to evacuate and treat a city of 35 million people. As far as I can tell, things do not appear to be headed in this direction. But such an outcome is unfortunately not outside the realm of possibility, and just contemplating this should freak you out. But, to reiterate, it’s very unlikely, and a lot of things would have to go catastrophically wrong. I’d love to quantify just how unlikely, but cannot. My guess is that nobody can, since there are too many uncertainties, and we’re fundamentally in uncharted territory.

And here is best case scenario:

The best-case scenario, and probably most likely, is that the Fukushima-Daiichi plant will limp along, but without any catastrophic events (such as a major Chernobyl-style radioactive explosion and fire). The fuel will continue to cool, the fires will be put out, the amount of radiation will subside, and eventually the entire site will be entombed and become a testament to human hubris.

Here is a fairly good, simple explanation of the situation by a guy with a PhD in Nuclear Engineering from the University of California, Berkeley and who is currently employed as a nuclear engineer, but does not work on nuclear power plants.