Demographic Disaster

Malthus had a point but his doomster scenario didn't occur because it was made just on the cusp of the Industrial and Scientific Revolutions which empowered humans to provide themselves with a better standard of living and more reproductive control. Africa, however, is something altogether different. From an article in the Economist:

Africa is still something of a demographic outlier compared with the rest of the developing world. Long berated (or loved) as the sleepiest continent, it has now become the fastest-growing and fastest-urbanising one. Its population has grown from 110m in 1850 to 1 billion today. Its fertility rate is still high: the average woman born today can expect to have five children in her child-bearing years, compared with just 1.7 in East Asia. Barring catastrophe, Africa’s population will reach 2 billion by 2050. To get a sense of this kind of increase, consider that in 1950 there were two Europeans for every African; by 2050, on present trends, there will be two Africans for every European.

There are three main reasons for pessimism. The first is that even today it struggles to provide for its people. ... Africa today produces less food per head than at any time since independence. Farms are getting smaller, sometimes farcically so. Dividing village plots among sons is like cutting up postage stamps. The average smallholding of just over half an acre (0.25 hectares) is too small to feed a family—hence the continent’s widespread stunting. Africa’s disease burden extends to its animals and crops. ...

... the second reason for pessimism: Africa’s families are under greater strain than Asia’s or Latin America’s were when their demographic transitions first began. That means, pessimists fear, that African countries may fail to navigate the virtuous cycle of industrialisation, growing employment, increasing productivity and prosperity. ...

The third reason for pessimism is Africa’s political violence, corruption and weak or non-existent governing institutions. ... In the worst cases, civil war has meant that the demographic transition has not even begun. Fertility in Congo, Liberia and Sierra Leone—all torn apart by internecine fighting—has barely fallen. In Congo the rate is still six, just as it was in 1950. In the worst places, fecundity tends to track instability. Africa’s highest fertility rates are in the refugee and internally displaced camps in Sudan and Somalia, then in those countries recovering from war, then in famine-pocked patches of desert and scrub stretching from Mauritania to Kenya.

Go read the article. It has interesting details and facts.

If you can't feed yourself, you certainly shouldn't be multiplying your population. Africa is a mess. Decades of "relief" have produced nothing. There needs to be an indigenous revolution, new ideas, that drive those populations toward a new vision of the future. The current path is a disaster.

Instead of all the talk about "help" and "relief", the only real help the developed world can offer Africa is to drop all tariffs on every kind of Africa product whether agricultural or industrial or even services. It is hypocritical to offer "aid" and then put up barriers that inhibit growth. The rest of the world needs to drop barriers and offer education to future leaders, but otherwise stand back and let Africans solve their own problems. It should police its own population to make sure no person from a developed country exploits Africa by selling weapons or doing "oil deals" or even "aid projects".

The developed world really needs a "hands off" policy. Sadly, China is now busy "developing" Africa like the West has done, i.e. exploiting Africa by doing deals with political elites to the disadvantage of the local population.

My personal viewpoint is that Africa will collapse because of demographic explosion, government corruption, and rampant disease. I'm pessimistic.