Monday, July 6, 2009

Stimulus and Stimulus 2 or is that 3?

Bush did a "stimulus" in early 2008 that had almost no effect because it was a tax cut that was mostly save.

Obama did his stimulus in Jan 2009 and over half of it was tax cuts and they have been in effect since the first of this year but are not having much effect. The money for construction projects will be coming on line later this year and build through 2010, so its effect is not visible.

But clearly the US is not getting the "simulus" that was touted.

Click to Enlarge

The Calculated Risk website quotes VP Joe Biden saying that there won't be another stimulus. It has the above graph showing that things are much worse than the Obama admin expected. And it has this quote from Paul Krugman:
But never mind the hoocoodanodes and ayatollahyaseaux. What’s important now is that we don’t compound the understimulus mistake by adopting what Biden seems to be proposing — namely, a wait and see approach. Fiscal stimulus takes time. If we wait to see whether round one did the trick, round two won’t have much chance of doing a lot of good before late 2010 or beyond.
If I were a betting man, I would bet that the Obama admin flubs it and come with "stimulus 3" some time this year and consequently the recession/depression will be much longer and much deeper than it needs to be. Just like under Bush, every step is a day late and a dollar short. Geesh!

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