This book lived down to my expectations. It was a pleasant read, but it didn't provide any real "aha" moments. It takes a reasoned, middle road in looking at today's world and the US's role in it. He is generally upbeat about the US but admits that in relative terms it is slipping. But as he explains "this is to be expected".In had to resist the temptation to keep saying "he is an immigrant, so he has an immigrant's attitude toward his adopted country". He is proud of the ideals. He accepts the warts of political reality in the US while remaining hopeful that the country will muddle through.
I do like his discussions of history, of China, and of India. He is refreshing in having a wider perspective than most American commentators. He presents China as "the Challenger" and India as "the Ally". Yes, that's generally true, but I don't come away from these two chapters feeling any new great insight.
In the section on American Power he presents the history of British decline as an example to the US. But he assures his readers that this fate need not await the US since "... it is essential to note that the central feature of Britain's decline -- irreversible economic deterioration -- does not really apply to the United States today." I don't completely accept his argument. There are similarities. Both took their eye off the ball of maintaining a solid economy. Both let their educational system fall behind competitors. Both allowed their politics to be swallowed in the machinations of "great power" thinking. Zakaria is far too optimistic about the US having cherry-picked the best of the economy for itself while leaving the drudgery of mere industry to China. Seems to me this was the view of the English elites as they focused on their financial industry compared to the German's drudgery with manufacturing in such areas as chemicals and steel and electrical industries. I look back at how close a call WWI and WWII were for England and think it is because the English were too smug about their coupon clipping and not worried enough about how manufacturing would let Germany build up impressive war industries.
Zakaria sounds too much like somebody rationalizing when he claims that while US educational averages are fairly low on a global standard, the elite schools are still tops and the upper middle classes are getting advanced degrees. I just read a report where US education has recorded its first fall in levels of education. Previous generations got 1 or 2 years more education than the previous generation but now they are getting 1 year less on average. That can't be good. And all that vaunted "elite" university stuff is wonderful if the kids attending actually end up working in the country. But the US is filling its elite universities with more and more foreign students who now leave and take their skills back to their home countries. So I don't think the argument about hidden "strength" in US elite education really holds. Not when I hear that in the Gulf States of the Middle East a number of elite universities are busy trying to create duplicate elite name brand university campuses. Isn't this just one more example of moving a competence offshore?
I think Zakaria has it generally right, but he does read as a bit complaisant and smug that the US will muddle through. I think Americans need more of a fire-and-brimstone speech to wake them up to the dangers that they are letting themselves be lulled into. I'm happy enough to see a multipolar world, but I think a lot of Americans are going to be shocked when it happens and this book is not a clarion call to action. It is a polite whisper that there may be trouble afoot. This seems tepid when others are hearing blood curdling screams just outside the gates. I would love to see an American that is strong and benevolent. But given the change that is taking place and given my fear of a strong and tyrannical US, I'll be happy enough with a weak and irrelevant US in a multipolar world.
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