Crying Wolf

Here is Greg Ip of the Wall Street Journal (he is actually moving to The Economist) talking about an interview with George Soros:



I don't believe the wolf will show up. I think George Soros is a financial genius only in the sense that if you get a 1000 people flipping a coin, then after 10 flips, there will likely be one guy in the crowd who got 10 heads in a row. A champion flipper? Nope, just lucky. I think Soros' theory of "reflexivity" is an overblown piece of mummery to cover the fact that he is a sharp guy who has been clever and lucky. So... I don't expect to see any "superbubble" burst in the near future.