Here is a talk by Michael Shermer on how we are evolved to see meaningful patterns everywhere.
Ignore his "politically correct" obeissance to "global warming". Sadly, he claims to skepticism don't extend to the outrageous claims of the IPCC. But this simply proves that you can't subcontract your opinions to others. Even people who claim to be skeptical can have blind spots.
Despite this gaff, the above presentation by Michael Shermer is well worth watching. And... to get the full benefit of this lecture, make sure you stick it out to the last couple of minutes when the principles that Shermer is espousing are put to the test!
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2 comments:
I like this video.
The locator that he talks about at the beginning reminded me of what we call "witching". I have seen witching work, but not the water well type. I have seen people use a bent piece of wire locate all kinds of pipes and even the end of a pipe line. I am not saying that the thing he had would work of course and I cannot personally witch anything, but I have seen it work and I have witnessed it utterly fail.. I remember reading about treasure hunters using a witching limb with a coin or some chunk of metal in the end of the fork and witch with it like for water wells. Even as a teenager, I was skeptical of this. I am half skeptical of any sort of divining or witching, but as I say, I have witnessed very accurate results with some people..
I think we are often scared or skittish because of events where we ignored warning signs or patterns or have read of these ignored warnings and the resulting calamity. I know that stories or movies must have some affect on people perceiving patterns or warning signs or even gut feelings and being afraid of the results of ignoring these things.
Anyway, thank you for posting this video..
Thomas: There is no scientific basis for witching. At best what you are seeing when it "works" is the fact that somebody is using environmental clues to "guide" their witching. The subconscious is a huge machine for assessing and interpreting that the conscious mind is unaware of. If you read Malcolm Gladwell's book "Blink" you can see the argument for trusting your subconscious judgments.
But generally you should be skeptical of "witching". There is no known physical field or signal that a "witching device" is picking up. Using Ockham's razor, the best explanation is that the "effect" is in the eye of the beholder. You are seeing a "pattern" that isn't there, just like being convinced that players have a "hot hand" or gamblers talk about "having a streak". These are all interpretations that our mind places on the event. They aren't in the event.
The danger of not being skeptical is exactly what Michael Shermer points out: you get people like the Iraq government buying a "device" to find bombs that is based on bogus claims and (a) the government wastes money and (b) people die because the device can't find bombs.
The world is full of too many stories of "miracle cures" that attract people who pay a lot of money to snake oil salesmen. Too many families devasted by murder or lost children and turn to "psychics" and "deviners" that they pay to try and solve the mystery. But this is all wasted money & time. There is no science there.
So even though your "very own eyes" have let you see the effect. Don't trust it unless you can explain the underlying physics. Even world class scientists get fooled by magicians into "seeing" effects that aren't there. Watch videos by Penn and Teller on YouTube to get an idea of how we can get tricked into believing all kinds of things.
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