Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Mexico. Show all posts

Sunday, August 28, 2011

From the US, a "Strategic" Picture of Canada

Here are some bits from a publication in the US talking about the strategic position of the US, its neighbors, and the world. Here I'll pick out the Canadian references. This is all very well understood in Canada but most Americans really don't know:
Canada’s maritime transport zones are far superior to those of Mexico but pale in comparison to those of the United States. Its first, the Great Lakes, not only requires engineering but is shared with the United States. The second, the St. Lawrence Seaway, is a solid option (again with sufficient engineering), but it services a region too cold to develop many dense population centers. None of Canada boasts naturally navigable rivers, often making it more attractive for Canada’s provinces — in particular the prairie provinces and British Columbia — to integrate with the United States, where transport is cheaper, the climate supports a larger population and markets are more readily accessible. Additionally, the Canadian Shield greatly limits development opportunities. This vast region — which covers more than half of Canada’s landmass and starkly separates Quebec City, Montreal, Toronto and the prairie provinces — consists of a rocky, broken landscape perfect for canoeing and backpacking but unsuitable for agriculture or habitation.

...

In the north, the Great Lakes are obviously an ideal break point in the middle of the border region, but the specific location of the line along the rest of the border is largely irrelevant. East of the lakes, low mountains and thick forests dominate the landscape — not the sort of terrain to generate a power that could challenge the U.S. East Coast. The border here could theoretically lie anywhere between the St. Lawrence Seaway and Massachusetts without compromising the American population centers on the East Coast (although, of course, the farther north the line is the more secure the East Coast will be). West of the lakes is flat prairie that can be easily crossed, but the land is too cold and often too dry, and, like the east, it cannot support a large population. So long as the border lies north of the bulk of the Missouri River’s expansive watershed, the border’s specific location is somewhat academic, and it becomes even more so when one reaches the Rockies.

On the far western end of the U.S.-Canada border is the only location where there could be some border friction. The entrance to Puget Sound — one of the world’s best natural harbors — is commanded by Vancouver Island. Most of the former is United States territory, but the latter is Canadian — in fact, the capital of British Columbia, Victoria, sits on the southern tip of that strategic island for precisely that reason. However, the fact that British Columbia is more than 3,000 kilometers from the Toronto region and that there is a 12:1 population imbalance between British Columbia and the American West Coast largely eliminates the possibility of Canadian territorial aggression.

...

The first land threat to the young United States was in essence the second phase of the Revolutionary War — a rematch between the British Empire and the young United States in the War of 1812. That the British navy could outmatch anything the Americans could float was obvious, and the naval blockade was crushing to an economy dependent upon coastal traffic. Geopolitically, the most critical part of the war was the participation of semi-independent British Canada. It wasn’t so much Canadian participation in any specific battle of the war (although Canadian troops did play a leading role in the sacking of Washington in August 1814) as it was that Canadian forces, unlike the British, did not have a supply line that stretched across the Atlantic. They were already in North America and, as such, constituted a direct physical threat to the existence of the United States.

Canada lacked many of the United States’ natural advantages even before the Americans were able to acquire the Louisiana Territory. First and most obvious, Canada is far enough north that its climate is far harsher than that of the United States, with all of the negative complications one would expect for population, agriculture and infrastructure. What few rivers Canada has neither interconnect nor remain usable year round. While the Great Lakes do not typically freeze, some of the river connections between them do. Most of these river connections also have rapids and falls, greatly limiting their utility as a transport network. Canada has made them more usable via grand canal projects, but the country’s low population and difficult climate greatly constrain its ability to generate capital locally. Every infrastructure project comes at a great opportunity cost, such a high cost that the St. Lawrence Seaway — a series of locks that link the St. Lawrence River to the Great Lakes and allow full ocean access — was not completed until 1959.

Canada is also greatly challenged by geography. The maritime provinces — particularly Newfoundland and Prince Edward Island — are disconnected from the Canadian landmass and unable to capitalize on what geographic blessings the rest of the country enjoys. They lack even the option of integrating south with the Americans and so are perennially poor and lightly populated compared to the rest of the country. Even in the modern day, what population centers Canada does have are geographically sequestered from one another by the Canadian Shield and the Rocky Mountains.

As time advanced, none of Canada’s geographic weaknesses worked themselves out. Even the western provinces — British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba — are linked to Canada’s core by only a single transport corridor that snakes 1,500 kilometers through the emptiness of western and central Ontario north of Lake Superior. All four provinces have been forced by geography and necessity to be more economically integrated with their southern neighbors than with their fellow Canadian provinces.

Such challenges to unity and development went from being inconvenient and expensive to downright dangerous when the British ended their involvement in the War of 1812 in February 1815. The British were exhausted from the Napoleonic Wars in Europe and, with the French Empire having essentially imploded, were more interested in reshaping the European balance of power than re-engaging the Americans in distant North America. For their part, the Americans were mobilized, angry and — remembering vividly the Canadian/British sacking of Washington — mulling revenge. This left a geographically and culturally fractured Canada dreading a long-term, solitary confrontation with a hostile and strengthening local power. During the following decades, the Canadians had little choice but to downgrade their ties to the increasingly disinterested British Empire, adopt political neutrality vis-a-vis Washington, and begin formal economic integration with the United States. Any other choice would have put the Canadians on the path to another war with the Americans (this time likely without the British), and that war could have had only one outcome.

With its northern border secured, the Americans set about excising as much other extra-hemispheric influence from North America as possible.

...

Just as the American plan for dealing with Canada was shaped by Canada’s geographic weakness, Washington’s efforts to first shield against and ultimately take over parts of Mexico were shaped by Mexico’s geographic shortcomings.
The author doesn't dwell on it, but US-Canada relations have been one-sided. The US demands and Canada/Britain compromises, as for example, by giving the US most of what it wanted with the Oregon compromise:
  • Originally this territory was part of the vast HBC (Hudson Bay Company) empire of fur trapping. From Wikipedia:
    Throughout the 1820s and 1830s, the HBC controlled nearly all trading operations in the Pacific Northwest, based out of the company headquarters at Fort Vancouver on the Columbia River. Although authority over the region was nominally shared by the United States and Britain through the Anglo-American Convention of 1818, company policy, enforced via Chief Factor John McLoughlin of the company's Columbia District, was to discourage U.S. settlement of the territory. The company's effective monopoly on trade virtually forbade any settlement in the region. It established Fort Boise in 1834 (in present-day southwestern Idaho) to compete with the American Fort Hall, 483 km (300 miles) to the east. In 1837, it purchased Fort Hall, also along the route of the Oregon Trail, where the outpost director displayed the abandoned wagons of discouraged settlers to those seeking to move west along the trail.

    ...

    During the 1820s and 1830s, HBC trappers were deeply involved in the early exploration and development of Northern California. Company trapping brigades were sent south from Fort Vancouver, along what became known as the Siskiyou Trail, into Northern California as far south as the San Francisco Bay Area. These trapping brigades in Northern California faced serious risks, and were often the first to explore relatively uncharted territory.

  • This early foothold was simply ignored when the 1846 Oregon "compromise" was settled. Initially the US wanted to take everything up to the parallel 54°40′ north, but was bargained into "only" taking the Oregon and Washington state territories.
Most Americans are treated to a triumphalist history, the infamous Manifest Destiny, which had God giving this land to the deserving Americans. The above "strategic" discussion of America is a healthy antidote to that nonsense. The US was hewn out of its neighbors by a designing, grasping, and ambitious political class in Washington DC. Read the whole document to see how the US treated Canada, Mexico, Spain, Hawaii, and the rest of the world.

But even this isn't the whole story. It ignores the outrages of suppressing democracy in the Philipines, the gunboat diplomacy in China, the outrageous "United Fruit" diplomacy in Central and Latin America, and the budding "new Rome" where the US, as the sole Colossus standing after WWII, built a vast empire of military bases around the world and brought war to many, many countries all cynically in the name of "democracy" or of "helping an ally". Think of US policies in South America, and a good example is how the US killed the legally elected president of Chile, Salvator Allende. Such a friendly gesture!

Thursday, April 7, 2011

A Fashion Statement from Mexico

Somehow I don't think this "fashion trend" will catch on...



If you can't get enough of "botas picudas", try looking at this web page.

If you care for a more academic presentation of this "fashion", then try this...

Friday, October 22, 2010

Is This The Direction Needed to Stop Mexico's Descent Into Violence

The spiraling drug violence in Mexico is very, very sad. The story of a 20-year-old woman taking on the job of police chief in an especially violence-prone city is fascinating:



I sure hope Mexico can get control back from the crazies. But I'm afraid that corruption has crept into all layers of society and into all institutions. So it will be very, very hard to get away from the violence.

Monday, July 5, 2010

Mexico: A 'Failed State'?

Here are some bits from a report by David A. Shirk for the Justice in Mexico Project. This report doesn't directly answer the question of whether Mexico is becoming a failed state, but it makes clear that, unless something is done, the trend would imply this conclusion. The author is an academic seeking to affect policy decisions, so he takes a much more moderate tone in his writing. Showing strong emotion -- especially fear and panic -- is not a way to motivate bureaucrats:

Based on available data and current research on drug-trafficking in Mexico, the recent escalation and varied geographic patterns of violence appear to be the result of several immediate factors:
  • the fractionalization of organized crime groups;

  • changing structures of political-bureaucratic corruption;

  • recent government efforts to crack down on organized crime (through military deployments and the disruption of DTO [Drug Trafficking Organization] leadership structures).
In addition, experts speculate that there may be larger macro-level factors contributing to the violence, such as shrinking drug demand in the United States; falling drug prices; increased border interdiction; or growing domestic demand in Mexico. However, it is not clear to what extent any of these larger trends has a significant or direct impact on violence. What is clear is that there has been a dramatic shift in Mexico over the course of the last 30 years. During the early- and mid-1980s, many current top DTO operatives— virtually all of them with roots in Sinaloa—worked within the same loosely knit set of allied organizations that controlled different commissions, or plazas, for smuggling drugs into the United States. At that time, DTOs operated with a level of impunity not seen before (or since) thanks to the protection then afforded to them by corrupt officials at very high levels in the Mexican government.

Beginning in the late 1980s, however, the relative tranquility that existed among the first generation of major Mexican drug traffickers began to erode. Following the murder of DEA agent Enrique “Kiki” Camarena in 1985 and the arrest of Miguel Angel Félix Gallardo in 1989, the subsequent breakdown of the central mechanisms of protection and coordination was accompanied by greater coordination and violence among DTOs. Félix Gallardo’s protégé, Héctor Luis “El Guero” Palma Salazar, was among the first to come into conflict with other traffickers, including his former mentor. The murder of Palma’s two children and his wife (whose severed head was reportedly sent to Palma) was one of the first salvos in a new era of violence among Mexican DTOs, including the so-called Tijuana, Juárez, and Sinaloa cartels.
Here is the "politically correct" conclusion of the study:
Whether or not H.R. 2134 is approved, developments in Mexico in 2010 will no doubt play a significant role in the ongoing debate over the effectiveness of current U.S. drug policy. Given the extraordinary number of drug-related killings, 2009 was a year of unprecedented, high-profile violence in Mexico. Since recent blows against key DTOs may produce more turmoil over the ensuring months, the toll of drug-related violence remains high at the start of the new decade. Such violence must be taken in context, since drugrelated killings are heavily concentrated in a few key states and very few members of the general population are casualties of this violence. However, the number of drug-related killings has clearly increased to unacceptable levels and creates serious concerns for both Mexican policy makers and citizens. While the problem of drug-related violence should not be exaggerated, it must be addressed. Identifying the best pratices and strategies for both the short and long term must be a top priority for both Mexico and the United States.
This is far too temperate a conclusion. Especially when you note that the current elections in Mexico have ended in a crescendo of violence as reported by The Christian Science Monitor:
A leading gubernatorial candidate is gunned down by suspected organized criminals disguised as soldiers. A severed head is dumped near the house of a mayoral candidate. Voters wake up to four bodies found hanging from bridges. Candidates arrive to cast their ballots in bulletproof vests accompanied by security entourages.

Welcome to Mexico's election, in which drug violence has intimidated front-runners and decreased voter participation in Sunday's races to replace 12 of the nation’s 31 governors.

...

Voter turnout differed depending on the state, but came close to a standstill in areas where cartel violence spread to the elections.

In the border state of Tamaulipas, where suspected cartel hitmen assassinated gubernatorial candidate Rodolfo Torre Cantu on June 28, only 38.6 percent of voters cast their ballots. Torre Cantu’s brother ran in his place, arriving at polling stations with heavy security detail.

Reports of unidentified gunmen circling polling stations also kept voters away. Voter participation in the crime-plagued border city of Juarez was only 20 percent, the local La Jornada newspaper reported.

Tuesday, June 8, 2010

Trying to Dissect the Truth

A young Mexican kid is shot and killed at the border near El Paso. What is the truth? From the Wall Street Journal we get two sides.

Here is one side:
According to two witnesses on the bridge, the victim was part of a group of teens who had sidestepped border checkpoints on the Santa Fe Bridge—which is flanked by border checkpoints on either side—and entered the U.S. on foot, crossing a dry aqueduct and an old railroad beside the bridge. None were carrying backpacks or appeared to have weapons, the two witnesses said.

The teens were playing a kind of "cat-and-mouse game," said Bobbie McDow, 52, a U.S. national who said she witnessed the shooting from the middle of the bridge where she was standing. The teenagers, Ms. McDow said, appeared to be trying to make it to the U.S. side and quickly back to Mexico without being caught by officials, a pattern that Ms. McDow said she has noticed.

Ms. McDow said that U.S. border agents spotted the teenagers and gave chase. One teen stumbled and was caught, and another was pinned down by an agent who had chased him by bicycle, she said. While holding down one of the Mexican boys, this agent fired shots toward Mexico.

One of the youths—not the young Mr. Hernández—had thrown rocks at the border patrol agents, Ms. McDow said, but she stressed that the agent's "life wasn't under threat."

Ms. McDow's husband, Raul Flores, 52, a Mexican national, also said he witnessed the incident. Mr. Flores said the teenager who was shot had stepped out from behind a pillar on the Mexican side of the border with his hands in the air. The agent and the teenager "had four seconds to look at each other" before the young man was shot, first in the shoulder and then in the head, he said.
From the Border patrol agents we get another version:
The FBI's account differed. It said border patrol agents responded to "a group of suspected illegal aliens being smuggled into the U.S. from Mexico." It said one suspect, Oscar Ivan Piñeda Ayala, was first detained. Another agent, arriving on his bicycle, detained a second, Augustin Alcaraz Reyes. Others in the group ran toward the Mexican border and began to throw rocks at the agent, the agency said.

The second agent told the others to "halt and retreat." However, they surrounded the agent and continued to throw rocks at him, the FBI said. The agent then fired his gun "several times," striking one person it didn't identify.

The FBI said the zone where this incident occurred is a known high-risk crime area where rocks are regularly thrown at border patrol agents and where other assaults have been reported.
The real truth will be never known, but from my experience with these kinds of stories, you have to do a Solomonic judgement and slice down the middle. The kids were not "innocent". Throwing rocks at armed police is a very dangerous game. The police were not innocent. There are too many cases of "shoot first" and ask questions later. Plus, if you are the police and somebody is throwing rocks which can cause serious injuries, you aren't just going to let yourself be a dummy target. You will fight back. A responsible cop would shoot to injure. A bad cop would shoot to kill. It looks to me this is a case of a border patrol agent who let his anger overcome him and he slipped over to the dark side and became a bad cop.

The "solution" will require all sides to accept responsibility and act to diffuse the situation. Blaming the other side and claiming your side is "lily white and pure" just won't do. Sadly, my experience says that this reasonable approach won't be taken. Both sides will dig in and blame the other.

The Mexican authorities need to patrol their side and do an educational campaign to warn kids that they are playing a deadly game when they throw rocks and they should expect to be killed. The US side needs to educate its officers that they have a right to defend themselves, but no right to use deadly force (which I interpret to mean they can shoot to wing/incapacitate, but not to kill). The US authorities need to try and find a non-lethal device for their agents. But as the Wall Street Journal article points out, even when they used a stun weapon earlier that week, they killed a Mexican national. So-called "non-lethal" weapons are all too often lethal.

Bottom line: there are no easy answers. All sides need to climb down and seriously try to diffuse the situation.

Sunday, July 13, 2008

Don't Fence Me In

One of my favourite songs as a kid was the country tune Don't Fence Me In. And when I was in school the teachers bludgeoned me into "appreciating" the poet Robert Frost who famously wrote "Good fences make good neighbors" in his poem Mending Wall.

Those are the happy references to fences, but here is the reality of a fences and walls as I see it... This is Ricardo Arjuno's El Mojado:



OK, that's pretty "dramatic". So for those of you that like something more rational and less emotional, try this...

Reason TV's The Wall (part 1)


Reason TV's The Wall (part 2)



Enough with the heavy stuff..

For those of you who want to enjoy the lyrics to Ricardo Arjona's music, here's they are line-by-line with the Spanish original followed by an English translation...

“El Mojado” por Ricardo Arjona
Empacó un par de camisas, un sombrero
He packed a couple shirts, a hat
Su vocación de aventurero, seis consejos, siete fotos
his job of adventurer, six advices, seven photos
Mil recuerdos
One thousand memories
Empacó sus ganas de quedarse
He packed his desire to stay
Su condición de transformarse
His condition of transforming himself
en el hombre que soñó
into a man who dreamed
y no ha logrado
and hasn’t achieved.
Dijo adiós con una mueca disfrazada de sonrisa
He said goodbye with a face disguised in a smile
Y le suplicó a su Dios crucificado en la repisa
And he prayed to his crucified God on the shelf
El resguardo de los suyos
Protection of his own.
Y perforó la frontera
And he broke through the border
Como pudo
However he could
[coro] [this is the repeated chorus]
Si la luna suave se desliza
If the soft moon slides over
Por cualquier cornisa
whatever corner
Sin permiso alguno
without any permission
Porque el mojado precisa
because the wetback needs
Comprobar con visas
to prove with visas
que no es de neptuno
that he is not from Neptune.

El mojado tiene ganas de secarse
the wetback would like to dry off
El mojado esta mojado por las lagrimas que evoca la nostalgia
the wetback is wet because of the tears that evoke nostalgia
El mojado, el indocumentado
the wetback, the undocumented person
Carga el bulto que el legal no cargaría
carries the load that the legal person wouldn’t carry
Ni obligado
even if forced to.
El suplicio de un papel lo ha convertido en fugitivo
The torture of a paper has turned him into a fugitive
Y no es de aquí porque su nombre no aparece en los archivos
and he is not from he because his name does not appear in the files
Ni es de allá porque se fue
nor is he from there because he left
[coro]
Mojado
Wetback
Sabe a mentira tu verdad
Your truth tastes like lies
Sabe a tristeza la ansiedad
Like sadness tastes the anxiety
De ver un freeway y soñar con la vereda
Of seeing a highway and dreaming of the path
Que conduce hasta tu casa
that goes to your house
Mojado, mojado de tanto llorar
Wetback, wetback of so much crying
Sabiendo que en algún lugar
Knowing that in one place
espera un beso haciendo pausa
a kiss is waiting paused
Desde el día en que te marchaste
since the day you walked out
[coro]
Si la visa universal se extiende
If the universal visa is extended
el día en que nacemos
the day that we are born
y caduca en la muerte
and expires at death
por qué te persiguen mojado
why do they persecute you, wetback
si el cónsul de los cielos
if the consulate of the heavens
ya te dio permiso
already gave you permission.