More Gloom, More Doom, No Boom as far as the eye can see...

Here is Robert Shiller telling us "there is no hope" and that the economic mess will go on and on and on...

Part 1:


Part 2:


Part 3:


I find his "parallels" with the Great Depression to be silly. In my humble opinion people get seduced by their fame and learn to keep feeding the short attention span of the media with ever greater claims of doom and gloom in times like this (or ever greater claims of utopia achieved during boom times). I don't trust a word of this.

E.g., citing a "parallel" in that an article today trying to explain how real interest rates can be negative was matched by an article in the period 1938-1941 is silly.

On the other hand, I do agree with his comments that economies are psychological and that "animal spirits" drive a market and can be contradictory and irrational. I also agree with this thesis that bubbles breed complacency and that is why the collapse can surprise us so badly. And I agree that the current bailouts are seen as fundamentally unfair and fail insofar as they are not part of a "thought out" policy.

I agree with his call for a "New Deal" and fundamental changes to the markets to "democratize" financial markets.