Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Spinning Scare Stories

Here is a bit about Greenland which should puzzle those who are convinced that the world is going to hell in a handbasket by anthropogenic (i.e. "man made") global warming. This is a bit from a post by S Jay Porter on the Watts Up With That? blog:
In 1991, two caribou hunters stumbled over a log on a snowy Greenland riverbank, an unusual event because Greenland is now above the treeline. (1) Over the past century, further archaeological investigations found frozen sheep droppings, a cow barn, bones from pigs, sheep and goats and remains of rye, barley and wheat all of which indicate that the Vikings had large farmsteads with ample pastures. The Greenlanders obviously prospered, because from the number of farms in both settlements, whose 400 or so stone ruins still dot the landscape, archaeologists guess that the population may have risen to a peak of about five thousand. They also built a cathedral and churches with graves which means that the soil must have been soft enough to dig, but these graves are now well below the permafrost (2).

There is also a story in ‘Landnamabok, the Icelandic Book of Settlement, which tells of a man who swam across his local fjord to fetch a sheep for a feast in honour of his cousin, the founder of Greenland, Erick the Red. Studies of Channel swimmers show that 10C would be the lowest temperature that a man would be able to endure for such a swim, but the average August temperature of water in the fjords along the southern Greenland coast now rarely exceeds 6C. The water at that time must therefore have been at least 4C warmer and probably more than that which means that the summer temperatures (for the air) in the fjords in southern Greenland would then have been 13C-14C, (3) as compared with the present temperatures mentioned above.

It follows that temperatures must have been higher than those of today’s during that first settlement of Greenland which lasted from approximately 900 until the mid-1400s AD, when these settlements died out. There is no written explanation for this sudden demise but climate scientists have discovered that Iceland, like the rest of Europe, was gripped by a rapid and centuries-long drop in temperature, known as the Little Ice Age. And in a recent study, William D’Andrea and Yongsong Huang of Brown University, Providence RI (4) have traced the variability of the Greenland climate over a period of 5,600 years when previous inhabitants were also subjected to rapid warm and cold swings in temperatures

Yet the whole reason for the existence of the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change (IPCC) is to thrust upon the world’s population the idea that industrialisation in the West over the last 100 years and our profligate use of fossil fuels is producing a run-away heating of the planet through the emission of greenhouse gases, mainly CO2, which unless checked will lead to its — and humanity’s — death.
There is much more. Go read the whole post.

I find it funny that for 30 years IPCC has been telling us that the world is in a runaway global warming, but I sure as heck can't see the results. I bought a house behind a dike in 1983 and worried -- because of IPCC projections -- that I might have to abandon it by 2000 because of rising sea levels. The sea didn't rise. The house is still quite safe. Here in the Pacific Northwest we've had an unusually cold wet winter and no spring (a typical La NiƱa pattern). I see that the Antarctic ice sheet has a greater extent this summer than its 30 year average and there is no obvious pattern of a runaway "melting" of that ice cap. There is a slight melting in the arctic ice cap, but as the above story about Greenland should make clear, and this postings on ice-free conditions and submarine observations shows, it has melted in the past.

I've got no beef with the idea that humans can be affecting the climate. I just don't think that the modeling is convincing. And I do believe there is a witch hunt going on forcing climatologists to "toe the line" on global warming or lose their funding (see this and read it all very carefully because Roger Pielke Sr. is a solid climatologist).

I'm OK on environmentalism and conservation. I'm not OK with fanaticism. I trust science but I don't trust modeling (since I did computer modeling during my career and know how much of an "art" it is and how little of a "science"). What bugs me the most is that guys like Al Gore are selling global warming while in the business of making money off the global warming scare (via cap & trade) and while living a very wasteful, CO2 spewing lifestyle with multiple mansions with lots of floodlights and heating for next to no occupants in the homes:
Utility records show the Gore family paid an average monthly electric bill of about $1,200 last year for its 10,000-square-foot home.

The Gores used about 191,000 kilowatt hours in 2006, according to bills reviewed by The Associated Press spanning the period from Feb. 3, 2006, to Jan. 5. That is far more than the typical Nashville household, which uses about 15,600 kilowatt-hours per year.
How many houses can you live in at one time? (see this Business Insider report on his other mansion on the West Coast).

If I'm going to be lectured about CO2 and global warming, it had better be from somebody who is "holier than thou". Sadly, Al Gore doesn't pass the sniff test.

And fanatics like Al Gore stampede people into "solutions" which create more problems, e.g. this story about biodegradable products that create more problems than they solve by releasing even more powerful greenhouse gases than the "problem" waste they are trying to replace.

Here's the kind of "global warming" that I can buy into...

Click to Enlarge

The above graph shows oscillations which are well known in climatology. It shows an upward trend which I can buy as something to be understood (is a mix of forces on a larger scale including human infusion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere), and a clear demonstration of the alarmism of the IPCC with their runaway global heat death prediction which diverges from reality (see the dot marking 2009).

Krugman Spots the Real Rand Paul

I love it when the wing-nut wing of the Republican party gets caught out. Here is a post by Paul Krugman on his NY Times blog pointing out that "libertarian" Rand Paul isn't so big on "liberty":
Think Progress listens to Rand Paul, self-proclaimed defender of individual liberty, who believes that Americans should be imprisoned for listening to speeches:
PAUL: I’m not for profiling people on the color of their skin, or on their religion, but I would take into account where they’ve been traveling and perhaps, you might have to indirectly take into account whether or not they’ve been going to radical political speeches by religious leaders. It wouldn’t be that they are Islamic. But if someone is attending speeches from someone who is promoting the violent overthrow of our government, that’s really an offense that we should be going after — they should be deported or put in prison.
He’s not unusual. There are genuine libertarians out there. But political figures who talk a lot about liberty and freedom invariably turn out to mean the freedom to not pay taxes and discriminate based on race; freedom to hold different ideas and express them, not so much.
I guess Rand Paul hasn't heard of the freedom of thought, i.e. you can have any thought you please so long as it doesn't hurt others. Since the US Bill of Rights presumed such a right as so basic that it didn't bother to include it while it included rights to speech, press, assembly, religion, etc. But if the state can jail you because you heard something and it is still rattling around in your head, but you haven't acted on it, then that is the essence of a "police state". Rand Paul shows his "libertarian" credentials by endorsing a police state of the US. Go team Tea Party!

The Eco-Friendly 55 miles/gallon Car of the Future

Well... actually the past...



It is a cutie. If you want to read up on it, click here.

The Horrors in Syria

From BoingBoing:

YouTube has reinstated access to a graphic, horrifying video of Hamza Ali al-Khateeb, a 13-year-old child who is reported to have been tortured, castrated, and killed by Syrian government thugs after being separated from his mother and father at an April protest against the Assad regime. A link to the video is here; it is extremely disturbing and not appropriate for viewing by children. The video was apparently blocked by YouTube due to its shocking content, then unblocked after reporters and human rights advocates petitioned YouTube administrators.

The boy's corpse was returned to his family a month after his arrest. As The Nation reports, they "risked their lives to produce the video."

The New York Times reports that his father was detained after the video went public, and he has since been missing.

The New York Times describes the video:
But the remains themselves testify all too clearly to ghastly torture. Video posted online shows his battered, purple face. His skin is scrawled with cuts, gashes, deep burns and bullet wounds that would probably have injured but not killed. His jaw and kneecaps are shattered, according to an unidentified narrator, and his penis chopped off.
The US is willing to go after Gaddafi, but not Bashar al-Assad. It is clear to me that Assad has now killed & tortured about 20 times as many people as Gaddafi. But the US has not changed its attitude toward Assad. Assad helped the US by being the “outsource centre” for torture when the US wanted to question supposed al Qaeda operatives. Think of Maher Arar, the totally innocent Canadian sent off by the US for torture in Syria. The US still refuses to admit that this was a mistake or to punish anybody in the US for this grotesque crime.

A Sure-Fire "Get Rich Quick" Scheme

When I read this, the lights went off, the sirens rang out, and I saw dollar bills falling on my head like confetti...

From a CBC news report:
Two B.C. men are facing criminal charges for allegedly attempting a high-tech scam to cheat on a medical school entrance exam using secret cameras, wireless transmitters and three tutors, who at first did not realize they were being duped.

According to documents filed in provincial court in Richmond, B.C., Josiah Miguel Ruben and Houman Rezazadeh-Azar are each facing six charges including theft, unauthorized use of a computer, using a device to obtain unauthorized service and theft of data.

Police allege that on Jan. 29, Rezazadeh-Azar sat down in a room at the University of Victoria to write the Medical College Admissions Test, or MCAT, run by the Association of Medical Colleges.

Police allege he used a pinhole camera and wireless technology to transmit images of the questions on a computer screen back to his co-conspirator, Ruben, at the University of British Columbia.

Investigators believe Ruben then tricked three other students, who thought they were taking a multiple choice test for a job to be an MCAT tutor, into answering the questions.

The answers were then transmitted back by phone to Rezazadeh-Azar, as he continued on with the test in Victoria, police allege.

However, the would-be tutors became suspicious because of the poor quality of the images of the test questions, and the fact that they were allowed to discuss the question together before giving Ruben their answers.

When Ruben left the room to transmit some of the answers, the would-be tutors checked online and determined the MCAT exam was being held that day in locations around the world.

They also found evidence on the computer's hard drives that the owner had been looking into pin-hole cameras and wireless networks.

So the three students called campus security and began submitting wrong answers to the scammers while they waited for the officers to arrive and arrest Ruben.
I’ve got a better scheme. I remember when I was a kid about the training of planaria. You educate some extensively, then kill them, and then feed them to other planaria that suddenly “learn” the new skill without any training.

I figure I could set up a company called “Ingesting Education” and offer instant “smarts” to keen new scholars who can’t be bothered by hitting the books. All I need is to get some confederates to lurk around campuses, body snatch the really top PhD students, grind them up, and then I can feed that "knowledge" directly to my clientele. Instant education! No muss or fuss with pinhole cameras or the subterfuge of "tutoring" MCAT exams. And if I use the right tasty sauces, I can advertise as a "gourmet" educational institute and re-name my company Ingesting Sensation Education. Who wouldn't want to learn as they nibbled and gorged through a 3, 4, or 5 course fine dining experience?

How could anything go wrong with such a sure-fire rags-to-riches scheme?

Strangling Culture with the Red Tape of Copyright

When I was a kid stuff would fall into the public domain every day. But as I get older, things stopped going into public domain as governments around the world extended the length of copyright. As I have lived my life, "public domain" has become a mirage in the desert, with every year I pass, the date at which material will become available recedes further into the future. Now, it is getting worse than that, as law-makers bend to corporate greed and change the very definition of "public domain" so that nothing ever ends up there again.

Here's a bit from an excellent article in The Chronicle of Higher Education on a case going before the US Supreme Court:
The conductor's fight centers on the concept of the public domain, which scholars depend on for teaching and research. When a work enters the public domain, anyone can quote from it, copy it, share it, or republish it without seeking permission or paying royalties.

The dispute that led to Golan v. Holder dates to 1994, when Congress passed a law that moved vast amounts of material from the public domain back behind the firewall of copyright protection. For conductors like Mr. Golan, that step limited access to canonical 20th-century Russian pieces that had been freely played for years.

"It was a shocking change," Mr. Golan says over dinner at a tacos-and-margaritas dive near the University of Denver's mountain-framed campus. "You used to be able to buy Prokofiev, Shostakovich, Stravinsky. All of a sudden, on one day, you couldn't anymore."

Other works once available but now restricted include books by H.G. Wells, Virginia Woolf, and C.S. Lewis; films by Alfred Hitchcock, Federico Fellini, and Jean Renoir; and artwork by M.C. Escher and Pablo Picasso. The U.S. Copyright Office estimated that the works qualifying for copyright restoration "probably number in the millions."

Congress approved the recopyrighting, limited to foreign works, to align U.S. policy with an international copyright treaty. But the Golan plaintiffs—a group that includes educators, performers, and film archivists—argue that bigger principles are at stake. Does Congress have the constitutional right to remove works from the public domain? And if it does, what's stopping it from plucking out even more freely available works?

"If you can't rely on the status of something in the public domain today—that is, if you never know whether Congress is going to act again and yank it out—you're going to be a lot more cautious about doing anything with these materials," says Mr. Golan's lawyer, Anthony Falzone, executive director of the Fair Use Project and a lecturer in law at Stanford Law School. "You really destroy the value and the usefulness of the public domain in a profound way if the rug can be pulled out from under you at any time."

...

The change was surprising from a philosophical point of view: Under copyright law, the Constitution grants authors a limited monopoly over their works as an incentive to promote creativity. Over the years, Congress has often delayed the passage of works into the public domain by lengthening the duration of copyright terms. But removing pieces already there was different, Mr. Golan's lawyers argue, a radical change in what one scholar describes as the basic "physics" of the public domain.

That may sound abstract, but the impact on Mr. Golan was direct. When a work is in the public domain—that Puccini opera, say—an orchestra can buy the sheet music. Symphonies typically cost about $150. And the orchestra can keep those pages forever, preserving the instructions that librarians laboriously pencil into scores. But works under copyright are typically available only for rent. And the cost is significantly higher: about $600 for one performance. With the flip of a switch, the new law restored copyright to thousands of pieces.

For big-city orchestras like the New York Philharmonic, that change is like a "mosquito bite," Mr. Golan says. But Mr. Golan's university ensemble gets only about $4,000 to rent and buy music each year. That means it can perform some copyrighted works but must rely on the public domain for about 80 percent of its repertoire. And $4,000 is relatively generous. Other colleges might have only $500 to spend on music. When the Conductors Guild surveyed its 1,600 members, 70 percent of respondents said they were now priced out of performing pieces previously in the public domain.
Read the whole article.

Cory Doctorow on BoingBoing points out that the whole issue of The Chronicle of Higher Education is chock full of copyright issues:
New copyright lawsuits and policies have hobbled teaching and research. Now scholars are pushing back. In a special report, the Chronicle of Higher Education covers the copyright wars from several angles:

* A Professor Takes His Fight to the Supreme Court: The ability to teach and research many books, films, and pieces of music may hinge on Lawrence Golan's suit

* Colleges Lock Away Millions of Works: Academic archives are playing it safe, limiting online access to books, images, and artwork

* What You Don't Know About Copyright, But Should

* Pushing Back Against Legal Threats By Putting Fair Use Forward: A dynamic professorial duo leaps to the defense of beleaguered scholars

* Two Universities Under the Legal Gun
Click here to link to BoingBoing and get the embedded links to the articles in The Chronicle of Higher Education

Cartoonist Recommends Sending America's Richest Kids to Fight Its Wars

I couldn't resist the above title when Scott Adams finished his blog post with the line:
[Note: The best way to quote me out of context is something along the lines of “Cartoonist recommends increasing taxes on the poor!”]
What got my ire up? Adams is incensed that the bottom 51% don't pay any income tax. (I guess he's OK with them paying viciously regressive payroll taxes, but he really feels that since they don't pay any "income" tax then they don't have any "skin in the game". With that logic, then if the US exempts capital gains from taxes, the ultra-rich will have no "skin in the game".)

Here's the key bit from Scott Adams' post:
We all understand that no entity can survive for long if it gives away its resources while asking nothing in return. And this leads me to my point: In the United States, 51% of adults pay zero federal income tax, and yet they have the right to vote. That’s the very definition of a system that can’t last.

I’m not sure where the tipping point is. So far, the power of the non-tax-paying majority has been blunted by the influence of political parties and the misdirection of the media. If the majority ever figures out that they can legally confiscate the wealth of the minority, tax rates will double overnight. My best guess is that the United States will go into a death spiral at about the point that 55% of adults pay no federal income taxes. We’ll probably get to that point as baby boomers continue to retire in large numbers.
I say we "up the ante" in this game of "skin in the game"...

The rich don't send their kids to die in Iraq and Afghanistan. That's shocking because it means they are getting something for nothing and as Scott Adams knows, that's a system that is about to blow up in your face. So the Scott Adams solution:
Draft the young, men and women, rich and old, and force them to have "skin in the game" so that their loyalty and commitment to America is up front and obvious.
That what Scott Adams really means when he talks taxes. Taxes are for wimps. If you want to talk real "skin in the game" it is dead bodies in boxes coming back from your foreign wars. So Scott Adams is asking for the top 1% of Americans to pitch in and deliver up their children to be cannon fodder for America's endless wars.

Here's Adams pleading his cause:
My recommendation for putting a safeguard on the state of the union is that every adult citizen should pay federal income taxes, even if it is just one dollar per year. For the benefit of the country, it is important to blur the line between rich and poor.
It is odd to see Scott Adams to get so wound up over dollars when the real currency of patriotism is blood. I'm sure Scott Adams, as a patriot, served in the military and he has his children signed up in ROTC or ready to swear into the military as soon as they hit 18. Right? Funny... I see in his Wikipedia page that he was an office worker and cartoonist, but somehow they've overlooked his hitch in the military when he was a grunt carrying a rifle ready to lay his life down whenever his country called for him to run and fill the breach when danger arose. A patriot like Adams wouldn't have shirked his military duty, right? Especially since he has time to complain about the poor -- who serve disproportionately in the military -- aren't carrying their fair "burden" in tax dollars. Adams knows that blood is an infinitely greater sacrifice than dollars, and the poor are bleeding for their country. Bleeding disproportionately.