The Arctic Ice Cap

Climatologists have been predicting that the North Pole will be "ice free". In fact, according to National Geographic, that was supposed to happen last summer:

"I would say the ice in the vicinity of the North Pole is primed for melting, and an ice-free North Pole is a good possibility," Sheldon Drobot, a climatologist at the Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research at the University of Colorado, said by email.

And this:

"We're actually projecting this year that the North Pole may be free of ice for the first time [in history]," David Barber, of the University of Manitoba, told National Geographic News aboard the C.C.G.S. Amundsen, a Canadian research icebreaker.

Needless to say, all the ice didn't disappear. There was over 4 million square kilometers of ice left. From NSIDC (National Snow and Ice Data Center):


And this year, there is even more ice left. Why?

This graphic from a posting by Bob Tisdale on Watts Up With That holds a clue:


Notice how the heat content of the Arctic Ocean has gone down. Less heat, less melting.

It looks like the Global Warming crowd are a bit like Wiley Coyote trying to kill the Roadrunner. It is back to the drawing board. As Bob Tisdale puts it:

It is clear that significant El Nino events can and do cause upward step changes in Ocean Heat Content. This indicates that ENSO events do more than simply release heat from the tropical Pacific into the atmosphere. Apparently, El Nino events also cause changes in atmospheric circulation in ways that impact Ocean Heat Content. If and when GCMs are able to recreate the variations in atmospheric circulation that cause these changes in Ocean Heat Content, GCMs may have value in predicting future climate variability. At present, they do not.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for the GCM's to accurately model this phenomenon.