Thursday, May 5, 2011

Calling David Brooks on the Carpet

Here is an excellent post by Dean Baker in his Beat the Press blog that points out that David Brooks doesn't know what he is talking about. This is good. It brings Brooks down a peg. Brooks is a lovely writer, but he is in love with his words and not necessarily the truth. Brooks lives isolated from the lives of the bottom 90% so he uses his imagination to "fill in the gaps". But when you are upper middle income guy, your imagination about "how the other half lives" is fully of a lot of blarney:
David Brooks Shows How Far We Have Gone from the Founding Fathers: It Used to be That Columnists Had to Know What They Were Talking About

David Brooks told readers that:

"Over the past months, there has been some progress in getting Americans to accept the need for self-restraint."

This should have hundreds of millions asking who needs "self-restraint?" Does Brooks thinks that the 14 million unemployed need more self-restraint? Do the 8 million people who want full time work but who can only find part-time employment need self-restraint? Do the millions of people who are facing the loss of their home need more self-restraint?

Brooks isn't very clear on who he thinks needs to restrain themselves but he praises Senator Alan Simpson, Representative Paul Ryan and President Obama for helping to lecture us on this need. Those familiar with the basic economic data know that the richest 1 percent have used their control of the political process to hugely increase their share of national income over the last three decades. The bottom 90 percent has seen little gain from economic growth over this period. Of course Representative Ryan wants to give more tax breaks to the richest 1 percent, so he doesn't seem to be preaching self-restraint to those who have been showing the least in recent years.

If Brooks' concern is making the welfare state sustainable, then he should be talking about fixing the health care system. It is easy to show that if per person health care costs in the United States were comparable to any other wealthy country then we would be projecting huge budget surpluses, not deficits.

If Brooks bothered to take a few minutes to study the issues he writes about then he would know this. Fortunately for him, he has job for which this skill is not required.

Brooks also claims that there is an inherent tension between economic dynamism and economic security, telling readers:

"Republicans still mostly talk about incentives for growth, and Democrats still mostly talk about economic security."

Actually many Democrats have been actively talking about more stimulatory fiscal policy, monetary policy and currency policy (i.e. a lower valued dollar). All of these policies would boost growth. It is remarkable that Brooks is apparently unaware of the large number of Democrats, including several of his colleagues at the New York Times, who have been vigorously pushing these positions.
I enjoy Dean Baker. He has taken on the Sisyphean task of correcting the errors and lies in the media. I admire his sense of duty. It is a hopeless task. Not only does the media mostly ignore his corrections, they seem to glory in their ignorance and politically motivated perversions of the truth. A guy like David Brooks makes enough to hire fact checkers and take the time to talk to people outside his bubble of affluent types. But he would rather just make the stuff up.

Brooks is the kind of guy who during the Great Depression would be saying that the real problem was that people didn't know any peppy songs. They needed to sing some lively tunes and the economy would recover. It was all those people lining up to get their money out of the banks that was scaring the rich people from investing in the economy that had caused the Great Depression. If only the unemployed would go out for a good restaurant meal once a week, the Great Depression could have been stopped in six months instead of lingering for more than a decade.

Oh... and here is a bit from another Dean Baker post that is well worth reading. This goes after The Washington Post and not David Brooks:
Those who thought that the Washington Post (a.k.a. Fox on 15th Street) couldn't get any worse, have just been proven wrong yet again. The Post ran a little primer telling readers about Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

The Post tells readers:

"a GAO report found that total government health-care spending in the United States is somewhere in the middle. In the United States, spending on public health was 6.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2005, while it was 8.9 percent in France, 8.2 percent in Germany and 7.2 percent in the United Kingdom. On the lower end of the spectrum, Australia spent 6.4 percent of GDP on health care and Canada spent 6.9 percent. Some of the countries that spend more have had a demographic shift to an older population sooner than the United States."

Okay, boys and girls, can anyone see the problem with this discussion?

That's right! All the other countries included in this discussion have public health care systems. The figures cited for public health care spending comprise the bulk of their national spending on health care. Only in the United States do we have a large private health care sector that spends roughly the same amount as the public sector.

This means that rather being in the middle of the pack, as this discussion implies, we are way over the top. To pay for most of the health care needs of our seniors and our poor, our government pays almost as much Germany, Canada, and the U.K. do to provide for the health care needs of their entire population.

Of course this point should have been central to this whole primer. The reason that Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security are projected to "usurp much of the revenue from federal taxes," is that health care costs in the United States are out of control. If the U.S. paid the same amount per person for health care as any of these other countries it would be looking at huge budget surpluses in the long-term, not deficits.

The Beginning and the End of the Universe

Here's the inside scoop from a guy who is "in the know"...



I find it fully that a huge number of people think they really "understand" the universe from a little book that is a couple of thousand years old. The real story is simply incredible. But the smug fundamentalists couldn't be bothered to listen to what science has discovered.

The world is more amazing and mysterious than any single human being could possibly imagine. Science is the collective labour over centuries which has given us deep insights into the big, big world out there. Science is fact, not morals or art. What is annoying is that moralists think they know more about science than the scientists. They disrespect those tens of thousands of people working over centuries to give us our current state of knowledge. And science is truly humbling because scientists are the first to admit that the story is unfinished. There is yet more to know.

Finally, A Gutsy Company Says "No" to the Endless Demands of "Security"

From BoingBoing and my favourite blogger/novelist Cory Doctorow:
Mozilla tells DHS: we won't help you censor the Internet

Cory Doctorow at 2:43 PM Thursday, May 5, 2011

The US Department of Homeland Security has asked the Mozilla Foundation to take down the "Mafiaa Fire" plugin, which automatically redirects browsers to the new URLs for sites that have had their .com and .net addresses seized in the latest round of the copyright wars. The Mozilla Foundation has firmly refused.

However, where ICE might have expected a swift take down from Mozilla, the legal and business affairs department of the tech company was not planning to honor the request so easily.
"Our approach is to comply with valid court orders, warrants, and legal mandates, but in this case there was no such court order," Anderson explains.

According to Anderson complying with the request without any additional information would threaten open Internet principles. So, instead of taking the add-on offline they replied to ICE with a set of 11 well-crafted questions.
Homeland Security Wants Mozilla to Pull "Domain Seizure" Add-On

Mozilla's questions to the DHS
History shows that trends change when somebody finally stands up to the bully and says "enough".

Copyright fights are over property rights and have nothing to do with "security" so Homeland Security has no business trying to enforce some copyright claim by making sure that browsers don't let people go to a site where the material is available. The Justice Department and the Courts are the appropriate tools for pursuing a property right claim.

Cooperative Robots

Here is a video that purports to show research that has developed cooperative robots:



I'm not disagreeing that the robots cooperate or that they have used genetic algorithms to evolve or neural networks to express their behaviour. My complaint is that this research is "oversold". The result isn't as profound, ground-breaking, or deep as the video would imply. This is just another research group doing a little bit that essentially confirms what others have done. I see nothing earth-shaking in this research.

Sadly research groups have to compete for money. So the funding institutes have set up a "learning environment" which encourages researchers to "oversell" their research and do too much "me-too" research. Pressures for research funding are setting up their own "evolution" which is perverting research into optimizing the selling of research and not necessarily optimizing the efficient discovery of new science.

Justified Skepticism

I got a chuckle out of this post by Dilbert-creator Scott Adams on his blog:
When I heard that Osama used his own wife as a human shield, I assumed I was hearing a CIA-concocted story. It smelled wrong because it was too movie-like. Portraying Osama as a coward was the perfect way for the CIA to put a damper on Al Qaeda recruiting. We've since learned that Osama didn't use a human shield.

When I heard that our plan was to capture Osama alive if practical, I chuckled to myself. I'm not a Navy SEAL with a hundred operations under my belt, and even I would have blown Osama's head off if I thought he had enough moisture in his body to spit in my general direction. The last thing the United States needed was a trial. Now we know Osama wasn't blazing away with a machine gun in each hand. It was more of a "reaching for something" situation. And as you know, the very best time to consider reaching for a weapon is about half an hour after your secret lair has been attacked.

When I heard that Osama's hideout was a luxurious million-dollar villa, I kept wondering why the only video footage I kept seeing was a Pakistani crack house full of garbage. Since then we have learned that a better estimate for the home's value is $250K. I assume that's mostly for the land. The original story of the million-dollar mansion was probably a CIA invention to make Osama look like a hypocrite.

When I heard that waterboarding gave our intelligence folks the information they needed to eventually connect the dots and find Osama, I thought that seemed a convenient defense for past deeds. Now it seems that there's no way to know if other methods of interrogation would have yielded the same results.

When I heard that the SEALS endured an intense 40-minute fire-fight while sustaining no casualties, I wondered why the terrorists were so bad at aiming. Today we learn that there was only one armed combatant.

You might wonder how all of these rumors got started. My guess is that the lies were concocted in advance of the mission. The original plan involved killing or capturing everyone at the site who might have been a witness. Had we done that, the CIA could have controlled the story long enough for the fake facts to become common knowledge around the world. The lies would have been entirely justified, militarily speaking, if they had the impact of making Al Qaeda look bad and the United States look good. That's exactly the sort of thing we pay the CIA to do. I hope that was the plan. If it wasn't, it should have been.

Perhaps where things went wrong is that after losing a helicopter, the SEALS couldn't evacuate all of the witnesses. Remember the famous picture of the President in the Situation Room with all of his top advisors. Imagine how busy they were right after the mission, and how many people would need to talk to how many other people to come up with one unified story of events once the original set of lies became infeasible. It would have been nearly impossible to coordinate all the stories. I imagine that one faction in the government favored going with the original fake story, perhaps because the witnesses would not be credible. Maybe another faction assumed the truth would get out, so it was better if it came from the government first.

Given the slow leak of truth, I wonder what other surprises are in store. Remember that all of the fake facts so far had a whiff of hard-to-believe and a bit too convenient. None of the revelations have been complete surprises. So what do you predict will be the next fact we learn wasn't exactly true?
There is more. Go read the full post.

I remember the summer of 1964 when I had my first realization that the government manipulates "the truth". I had been a church camp when the Gulf of Tonkin "incident" occurred. The story was mangled so when I heard it there report was that US ships were given the OK to blow up Russian ships on sight. So I wandered in a daze for a day or two thinking I would see mushroom clouds on the horizon. When I got back to civilization I read every newspaper and news magazine to find out what "really" happened.

What I discovered was that the "news" didn't make a whole lot of sense. I had missed the wave of excitement so I wasn't swept up in the "they attacked us!" hysteria. Instead, I read the accounts critically and realized there wasn't much "attack" and there was a hell of a lot of "retaliation". Over time as more "truth" came out it was utterly obvious that this was a manufactured event to justify mass bombing of North Vietnam to try and slow the advance of the Viet Cong and NVA in South Vietnam. I realized I had been lied to.

Since then, I try to be skeptical about "the news". But I find that I get swept up in the initial hysteria. And only over time do I realize the story is "bigger" than what was presented. Often that means I end up opposing government policy. I feel like a sucker because I got manipulated.

I have no answer. Democratic governments, since they rely on the consent of the governed, should be required to be honest. But sadly, they aren't and there really is no mechanism other than a free press and the rights of citizens to question their leaders that ensure that the truth ever sees the light of day. But usually that is too late to stop "official" government action which we, the taxpayers, have to pay through the nose to clean up after the fact. Tragic.

I enjoy Scott Adams' blog. I don't agree with his political philosophy -- he's a libertarian -- but I do enjoy his point of view. We agree on individual freedom, but we disagree on social policy. I see government as the glue to hold us together and ensure a fair playing field. He hates government and wants to shrink it down small enough to be drowned in a bathtub. (Oh, to be fair, he isn't that extreme a libertarian, but that is what his buddies in the movement think.) To be honest, we probably agree on a lot of things, but we disagree on others. A democratic society is one in which people respect other people's opinions and seek to find common ground so they can have an effective civil society.

What I find utterly repellant about the US these days is that fanatics have taken charge. The Republicans have no interest in compromise or cooperation. The libertarians seek no compromise. I used to laugh at Nixon's so-called "silent majority" but I sure hope there is a "silent middle ground" in the US that will wake up from its slumbers and toss out the fanatics and revive good government and traditional American can-do attitudes and revive a pragmatism independent of the political ideologies.

Canada is famous for compromise, but we tend to catch "the American disease" 3-5 years after the States so we have our own right wing nut in power and he isn't interested in compromise. In fact he wants to remove "Government of Canada" from all documents and buildings and replace it with "the Harper Government". Any day I'm expecting posters of Harper to be hung like portraits of Stalin or Saddam Hussein. Where is the good old Canadian political accommodation and finding a happy compromise? How do we free ourselves of the ideologues?

Taking Control, Full Control, of Your Life

I found this bit from a post on Dan Ariely's blog very interesting. I've read both his books "Predictably Irrational" and "The Upside of Irrationality". Both are delightful and insightful. I also find his life inspiring: while preparing "fire signs" (a common feature in ceremonies of youth movements in Israel) he suffered third-degree burns over 70 percent of his body from an accidental magnesium flare explosion. He learned many lessons from how he handled himself through this time.

Here is the bit of his post that I found most interesting:
As the American population ages, the debate about the ethics of physician-assisted suicide for terminal patients becomes more important.

...

Outside of philosophical arguments, examination of an interesting finding regarding physician-assisted suicide – know as “The Oregon Paradox” – can add an interesting dimension to the debate. The paradox is the finding that when terminal patients in Oregon receive lethal medication (under Oregon’s Death with Dignity Act), they often feel a sense of greater wellbeing and a desire to live longer. In 2010, of 96 patients requested lethal medication, only 61 actually took it. Even more interesting are the many anecdotal accounts of terminal patients, upon receiving lethal medication, that feel a surge of wellbeing and a desire to persevere through their illness.

Why is this this the case? Looking at this question from an expected-utility perspective suggests that given the option to terminate their own life, terminal patients will decide how long they want to live by comparing the value they expect to gain from the rest of their lives to the expected intensity of their suffering. At the point where future utility is expected to be negative – that is, when the patient’s condition becomes so intolerable that living any longer is not worth the cost – the patient would choose to end life if the option were available.

The critical point from this perspective is that patients choose the amount of time they are willing to continue living with their illness, which will depend how quickly they deteriorate. If the rate of deterioration is slower than expected, then patients should delay terminating their lives; if the rate of deterioration is faster than expected, patients should desire to end their lives quicker.

But now let us say that patients have been prescribed lethal medication and have the option of ending their lives at any point of their choosing. As before, patients don’t want to choose a time too soon or too distant, but with the power to control the end of their lives they no longer have a reason to err on the side of haste! The patients can now wake up every day with the comfort of knowing that they do not have to suffer through pain or stress they might find intolerable.

Being given the option to determine the time of our own death can transform patients from powerless victims of their illness to willing survivors of it. Together, the importance of feeling in control and the ability to reduce (but not eliminate) uncertainty about rate of deterioration adds an interesting new dimension to the underlying ethical debate and seems to provide credence to the benefits of legalized physician-assisted suicide.

It is clear is that we need a greater understanding of the decision-making of patients at the end of their lives, and that with this improved understanding we can construct policy to better protect their wellbeing (for an interesting recent movie on this topic see “How to Die in Oregon”).
I'm a bit of a fanatic. I think people should take responsibility for themselves and have the freedom to make their own choices. On the other hand, I realize that some people really aren't competent to run their own lives (mental deficiencies, moral deficiencies, etc.) So I'm in a bit of a bind. I live under a grand banner about "the nature of man' but realize that there needs to be lots of find print and "lawyerese" to handle the fact that we are not all cookie-cutter the same. In short, I don't really have a simple clear answer to all of life's questions that can be printed on a cereal boxtop. I end up with slogans and qualifications. And I leave it open for debate and clarification. That's the best I think anybody can do.

I do know that even though euthanasia is "illegal" my mother in the 1980s told the doctor's "no heroic measures" for her father which was essentially the code words for "let him die". And with my mother, when she couldn't stand her disabilities from a flubbed brain surgery asked me to "get her out of here!", I did the paperwork to move her to a hospice where she was allowed to die. In effect I signed her death papers.

As Dan Ariely's piece above shows, the issue of euthanasia is not black-and-white as the noisy interest groups would make you think. It is complex. Ultimately it is best left to the family with state intervention only if it is clear that somebody in the family is manipulating things for their own interest and things are not being done in the best interest of the person who is dying. That is a broad rule that requires eternal vigilance and interpretation, but that is the glory of English common law. It is law that is "living" and constantly being reinterpreted as we learn more and as things change. Nothing carved in stone like the religious bigots would have you believe. Instead, a law based on the best judgments of your peers and an honest judge.

Wednesday, May 4, 2011

Big Object, Close Call

This is a really big asteroid that is flying awfully close to the earth in November of this year. 2005 YU55 is about 400 meters [1,300 feet] wide, and closest approach will be about 325,000 kilometers (201,700 miles) from Earth:

Click to View Animation

Read about it at this site.